It seems the entirety of concerns related to tariffs and trade were fully expurgated on Monday. Yesterday was a strong day for the bulls, and today we are heading into another all-green opening.
I often deride myself for making impulsive decisions, but my choice to get out of all my BITI (inverse Bitcoin) yesterday turned out to be spot-on, since I avoided the entire rally thereafter.
Although, as always, keep context in mind. This is probably just the umpteenth set-up for the BTC bears to whack the ball out of the park. I’m standing aside for now.
As for equities, by way of the /ES futures, we’re at an important juncture. A couple of Thursdays ago, we had a glorious plunge (arrow) which established a new trading range. We are at the ceiling of that range right now. The big question is whether there are enough buyers and, importantly, enough enthusiasm for Nvidia’s earnings tonight, to punch through this ceiling.
The /NQ has a similar setup, and it’s precisely at the cusp of a breakout.
It’s hard to say how much action there’s going to be today, considering the psychological weight that NVDA brings to the table as we all await the earnings data. The irony is that NVDA has been, for almost eight months now, an incredibly boring stock, clawing out a mere 5% gain in all that time. As the biggest stock on the planet, however, and the apotheosis of AI Bubble Stock, it deserves the attention.
I’m probably going to linger at about an 80% commitment level until the smoke clears somewhat. I’ll say it again: this is a crucial juncture. The next eight hours should determine if the bulls are going to yank the ball away again or not, across the board.
