Reaction was fairly muted on the NFP numbers, so I think we are back on normal programming for the rest of the day.
I posted the chart below on twitter last night showing my ideal short term target on SPX to be hit if possible today. I mentioned the SPX weekly upper band earlier this week and that was at 2044 at the close yesterday. On the chart below I have a channel resistance target that should be in the 2040-6 area, that is a match if the bulls can manage that today. SPX 1min chart:
I don’t have a pattern from the 1820 low on the 60min chart. What I do have though is the rising wedge into the 1949 high, and then a strong rising support trendline from the 1926 low. Until we see a break below that trendline there really isn’t much to see on the short side here. I have that at 2022 and rising fast. In the event that is broken the uptrend still wouldn’t be in significant trouble until the 50 hour MA (now at 2008) was also broken and started to act as resistance. SPX 60min chart:
On the daily chart I have another trendline target in the 2040-5 area. This is a confluence of target areas which makes seeing this level more likely. If bulls can get it together this morning we would ideally see that area hit today, and might well see a decent rejection there. SPX daily chart:
USD has broken my 87.6 level and is moving towards my 88.8 target. I’ll be looking for reversal there but may not get it of course. USD daily chart:
NFP days generally close up and I’m not seeing any reason so far to think that today will be an exception to that. Bulls need to defend that trendline in the 2022 area and the 20 hour MA just below which closed yesterday at 2019. In the absence of a break down I am looking for a move into my target 2040-5 area and very possibly a decent retracement to start there. I’m not expecting that to be a big high however. If we see that retrace it should go higher afterwards.
