Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Weekly Sector Report: 04/09/10 (Leisa)

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Below is the graph of the Dow Jones (24) Sectors for the week ending 04.09.10. The broad market sector advanced 1.5%. For the Dow Jones (164) sectors, 136/164 sectors were positive–particularly strong were the basic resources sectors.

You can find the chart book of the 24 sectors here presented on a weekly and daily basis in addition to the full listing of the 164 sectors here.  I want to encourage you to look at the individual chart books to include the ranking of all 164 industries because that detail has granularity that can be instantly absorbed.  For example, the top/bottom 5 sectors were these:

Topbottom

(I see that I have 6 top sectors!)

By looking at the individual subsectors, you can pull charts of individual constituents and using your own TA methodology make some decisions about potential trades. 

Market lore is replete with both wisdom and pablum.  Unfortunately, some of us (me!) have to learn the hard way how to differentiate between the two. I subscribe to the notion that any stock pick that I have is going to be governed in general as follows:

Snap57  

This model is my mental model that serves as the core of my evaluative process. A few questions one might ask are:

  • The market and sector are weak, but this stock is strong.  Why? (Could be exciting news such as an earnings report or a new product development.).  There might be a long or short opportunity depending on your evaluation of the catalyst. 
  • This stock is weak but the market and the sector are strong.  Why?Maybe there is a short opportunity or perhaps it is in undiscovered gem. A cursory look into the matter might prompt you to put it on your watch list.
  • This sector is strong, but the market is looking weak. The market could be undergoing sector rotation. Indices may consolidate, but underlying sectors will shift up/down.  Finding leaders within the sector might be helpful for identifying opportunities.

A very quick way to look a stocks is creating a ratio of the stock price to the sector that it is in.  For the 24 sectors charts, I provide the sector information for you and it's relative performance to the broad market index.  

Here's an example of a gold chart:

Thm

The bottom part of the chart shows THM's relative performance to all of the miners. Telling, isn't it?

I highlight these points is to encourage you to develop YOUR modality in looking at the markets and stocks within the market to make informed decisions that meet your risk tolerance and time horizons.   When you have a well-developed methodology, then you are informed by the opinions of others, not influenced (read:  derailed).   I may be a slow learner, but it took me a few years to settle on my current methodology.  It suits my style, and your mileage might vary.  Test drive the cars that you need to and undertake the required care and maintenance to optimize your driving time.

All data courtesy of Stockcharts | Compilation courtesy of me.

Weekly Sector Report Expanded for Month (by Leisa)

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With this report, I plan to migrate from a table presentation to a graphic presentation. I'm leading with the monthly change as we just closed a month. I have colored the total stock market index in blue so you can see that as an easy comparative. I hope you like this new format. Click on the image to make it larger.

image

You can find the detailed report here. It includes all 164 DJ Sectors, the weekly, daily and monthly charts. 


Fujisan in her post today highlights the copper. I'll use that as a springboard to include a sector spotlight chart on the Dow Jones US Industrial Metals Index. If you desire to do a quick view of this sector, you can visit FINVIZ

Industrial metals

I want to point out something important about this chart.  That is that this sector bottomed before most of the other sectors. Russell Napier in his Anatomy of a Bear1  noted that one key to finding a bottom is noting that copper and durable goods orders are two important leading indicators.  I will remind you to from my previous post, that this sector is one of the last top in the last down draft.  Watch this sector interplay.

1 I highly recommend your reading this book.  It will give you great empirical information regarding shared qualities–both quantitative (prices) and qualitative (news flow)  of bear markets. Some of the widely held conventional wisdom are dispatched with impunity. 

Post Cards from the Edge: Mind Maps (by Leisa)

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Today's post card from the edge is on radiant thinking. The objective
is to introduce you to the concept, share with you an interesting, free
tool and provide a brief example–in other words, get you interested in
exploring further. I frequently use mind-mapping to assist in creative
exploration and problem solving in personal and business matters.

First, and introduction to
Tony Buzan, the creator of mind mapping. From his website:

Tony
Buzan is the world's foremost expert on thinking visually, and a
leading lecturer on the brain and learning… Tony invented Mind Maps in
the 1970s, and has been instructing millions in this technique ever
since. The Mind Map is a visual representation of the thought process,
and became instantly popular as a creative, innovative and efficient
alternative to linear notation. The Mind Map is an adaptable tool for
just about anything: planning, organising, creating, presenting,
problem solving, communicating and many more!

While
many of us are trained to think linearly, it is believed that the brain
does not operate that way. Buzan posits that the brain works radiantly:
taking a central core idea and then radiating outwards in a various
branches (much like how nerve clusters work). You know that to be true
when you are trying to problem solve, and the answer remains elusive
while you are thinking about it. Once your brain consciously relieved
of thinking about it, the more subtle process of integration takes place
and your 'eureka' moment will spring forth seemingly spontaneously.

A mind
map is what I call systematic creativity–a bit of an oxymoron!
Nevertheless, it is a tool for both stimulating and documenting creative
thinking–and producing a map of that process. I use it frequently to
tackle new projects where I have to plow new ground. Buzan's website has
many interesting mind maps, the image to the left on
example.  I would encourage you to view them to get a flavor for the
output.

The most effective mind map that I created was for my 2008 Resolutions. Essentially it was my personal
balanced scorecard for the year. I posted it by my computer and actively
referred to it every day. I highly recommend this format when you are
in an introspective and personal development mode. I share it not
because I think that it is a great mind map, but rather is was the
single best personal development process and outcome that I had
undertaken.

In looking for a small mind map to post here, I
found this one–My Spider Trading Metaphor. It is very simplistic but
powerful. It allowed me to develop and integrate a metaphor into my
trading/investing life. My full integration of this metaphor is still a
work in process. I could have spent time making the product more creative, but that was
not my purpose.  The purpose is to illustrate the concept
of simplistic but powerful key words and the effectiveness of
presenting the concepts in a non-linear fashion.In writing this post, I
realize that one way to integrate this model is to put together a quick
mind map of a singular trade with the symbol in the middle.

(Click to make larger)


I
use a free program called FreeMind
to produce my mind maps. While doing this on the computer is easy,
there is much to be said for sitting down with some markers and a large
drawing tablet to coax your brain to unleash the power of its
creativity. If you have an interest in reading further, I found Buzan's
book, The Mind Map Book: How to Use Radiant Thinking to
Maximize Your Brain's Untapped Potential
,
both
informative and enjoyable.  I would encourage you to spend a little time
exploring this concept and making a few mind maps of your own.  I think
that you will find the process engaging and the output powerful and
useful.

Finding Your Inner Genius (by Leisa)

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This post may be a little of "postcards from the edge"–and it is a retread from my blog. I'm a big believer in the importance of creativity and non-linear thinking. One of my favorite books is How to Think like Leonardo Da Vinci: Seven Steps to Genius Every Day, by Michael Gelb. From his website:

Michael J. Gelb, is the world’s leading authority on the application of genius thinking to personal and organizational development. He is a pioneer in the fields of creative thinking, accelerated learning, and innovative leadership.



I count this book as one of the cornerstones in my own personal/professional development. In this book, Gelb lays out what he calls Seven Davincian Principles—a distillation of the seven things that are common to genius–and exemplified by our acclaimed geniuses. I believe that there is genius within all of us. Why not give that genius a little fresh air?
To give you a kick start, I wanted to present the Seven Davincian Principles. In resurrecting my former post, I was reminded that I used to have these by my desk as a reminder to integrate these principles into my everyday matters  I will post them in a conspicuous place again, for I believe that they are that important:

The Seven Davincian Principles


Curiosita
—An insatiably curious approach to life and an unrelenting quest
for continuous learning.

Dimostrazione—A commitment to test knowledge through experience,
persistence, and a willingness to learn from mistakes.


Sensazione
—The continual refinement of the senses, especially sight, as the
means to enliven experience.


Sfumate
(literally “Going up in Smoke”)—A willingness to embrace ambiguity,
paradox, and uncertainty.

Arte/Scienza—The development of the balance between science and art, logic
and imagination. “Whole-brain” thinking.

Corporalita—The cultivation of grace, ambidexterity, fitness, and poise.

Connessione—A recognition of and appreciation for the interconnectedness
of all things and phenomena. Systems thinking.

Source: How to Think like Leonardo da Vinci: Seven Steps to Genius Everday, Michael J. Gelb, p. 9.


It's not a large jump to see how these principles can operate within our own personal and professional lives. These principles present for us a personal "balanced score card" providing avenues of development that we may not have traveled previously.

After reading this book, I was inspired to get an artist's sketch pad. I then forced myself to do something that I've never done beyond stick figures:  draw.  My first subject was my ancient cat, Kip.  In trying to draw him, I was forced to do something that I had never done before–SEE him–his contours, his shades of gray and the perfect curvature of his eyes.

If any of these principles resonate with you and you want to see your own genius like I saw my cat, then I hope that this post inspires you to explore your own creativity and find a means to give voice to it. In a future post, I'll introduce you to mind mapping.

Sloper Profiles: Biffermas (by Leisa)

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(Note:  Biff has been a tireless chronicler of the affairs of Slopedom. 
I wanted to turn the table and interview him for Slopers.)

Leisa
Biff, I still remember very vividly your entrée into the SOH. I found
you to be a very fresh and interesting voice–I have to say, too, that
your moniker, Biffermas, had a certain odd crispness to both my eye and
ear. I'd like to start by asking you how you found SOH
.

 
BiffI merely stumbled
upon it while doing a Google search of some financial thing or another. 
It immediately struck me as something unique given the large community
that actively participated in the forum.  Until then my only exposure to
trading forums was through Yahoo Finance, which is inhabited by various
trolls, stock pumpers, and generally unpleasant people from the
internet underground.  Slopers were respectful, intelligent, and
committed to the site.  Weird! 

 
In the community trading blog
genre there are many excellent sites, but most are focused primarily on
the exchange of trading ideas.  This is valuable, but I find such
interaction kind of dry after awhile.  Besides, I have a trading plan
and style, so I'm not looking for "hot tips" and new ideas.  I like the
waffle house / neighborhood bar feel of the Slope, where random
conversation occurs alongside trading topics.This seems kind of dry, but
I don't know quite how to make it interesting.


Leisa:  What aspects of your
personal life would you like to share with Slopers?


Biff: This is a tough one
to answer, since personal life stories can be quite boring.  I was born
in Utah in 1970, and spent my early childhood in Northern California
while my dad suffered through a medical residency in Santa Rosa.  My
parents divorced when I was seven and I moved back to Utah with my
mother.  I was raised Mormon in various backwater locations until I
declared war on authority at 14.  Ironically I received my Eagle Scout
award just prior to this phase!

During my teenage years I exerted full
independence from mankind and made all kinds of bad decisions, which
took years and needless stress to recover from (I won’t go into details,
here).  Being a young fool I joined the Army Reserves at 17, and went
to basic training upon graduation from high school.  College was a much
needed clean slate and I capitalized on this by playing the academic
game as well as possible.  

During this time I married Mrs. Biff at a fairly young age (22), and she
gave birth to little Biff five months later.  We’ve had a great life,
the three of us.  After finishing at the University of Utah we moved to
Milwaukee for dental school at Marquette University.  Four years later I
graduated and was accepted to the orthodontic residency, which took
another two years.  We moved to Colorado, bought one practice and opened
another, and we found ourselves in our early thirties with well over a
million dollars in debt (since paid off).  I should note that Mrs. Biff
is a pediatric dentist, and we share a practice together.  
 
I’ve
had many hobbies, which I consider to represent on of life’s great
pleasures.  Among my favorites are: brewing beer, distilling hard
liquor, making wine, hydroponic gardening, construction / wood working
(I built the trading room / tiki shack shown in the picture, below), skiing,
mountain climbing.  I even went through a brief quilting phase, which
I’ve been mocked for incessantly!
 
Leisa: I've enclosed a picture of your wine room.  Is that
one of your quilts on the floor?

Biff: The quilt shown is something we
purchased at a
charity auction.  Boulder Dental Aid holds an annual fund raiser that we
support.  The money keeps a practice for low-income children
functioning.
 

LeisaI'm quite fond of the FatBoy Slim Weapon of
Choice video that you introduced to the Slope.  With respect to
trading, what would you describe as your Weapon of Choice? Are you a
futures, ETF, single equities guy, or a Renaissance man?  Also, what
time frame (short, intermediate, or long term) time frame do you use?

 

Biff : With any new profession or serious endeavor it’s
important to initially expand your knowledge base and be open to a huge
spectrum of ideas and styles.  Many assorted professions (including my
field of orthodontics) follow this philosophy.  What ultimately happens
to any effective professional is they submerge the vast majority of what
they’ve learned and focus on a single, predictable technique that works
for them.  This often takes years of practice to achieve, and some
never quite arrive.  The most dangerous surgeons are those that never
settled on a coherent, reproducible style for any given procedure they
perform.  Having a patient on life support and splayed open is no time
for contemplation and second-guessing oneself (insert your own trading
analogy here…)

 
Following
this process I very effectively formed a tremendous cloud of trading
information which led to my “paralysis by analysis” phase.  This lasted
many years, and I’m still shedding needless “baggage”.  I eliminate
concepts and ideas that don’t suit my purposes in a very Darwinian way. 
Through my experience trading I’ve tried countless methods for various
lengths of time, but ultimately always returned to what suits my personality:
day-trading with futures.  I’m not altogether comfortable in what that
says about me, quite frankly!
 
My trading knowledge came from
persistent personal study, but my trading style is assembled largely
from what I learned here on the Slope from people like you, Market
Sniper, Giledain, ComicFX, Viscous, and many others.  The willingness of
our friendly community to share and help others out is quite
remarkable.

Leisa:  We know that with most of things that we
undertake in life, those that challenge us help us develop needed
skills.  However, those challenges also unearth some weaknesses.  Would
you be willing to share with Slopers your single greatest strength and
how you've developed that in addition to your single biggest weakness
and how you have compensated for that?

 
Biff:  Ironically my twin strengths
also periodically become my twin weaknesses.  They are, 1- my
obsessive-compulsive focus / stubbornness, and 2- my comfort level with
risk taking.
 
If
compelled, I can tackle a single subject or problem for 18 hours a day
and months / years on end.  I refuse to give up until the issue is
solved to my satisfaction.  Naturally this becomes a net liability at
times as well, since virtually every other aspect of my life falls
dramatically on my priority list.  Trading is unique because it's been
my major extra curricular passion since 2002, far longer than any other
obsession has retained such a lofty status.  My comfort with taking a
risk has been a huge benefit in my life in general. I've never minded
moving to a new city, opening a business, taking on debt, initiating a
trade, going to school for protracted periods with no income,
etc.  Occasionally this risk-taking backfires.  I’m ashamed to admit I
purchased my house in May 2007.  Talk about lousy timing!  My penchant
for risk taking has also caused some hardships in a few areas. Starting a
practice from scratch resulted in zero income for two years, and I blew
out my trading account as a noob in 2002.  Overall, however, one must
take a chance or remain stagnant in life.

Leisa: If you had only one minute to spend with an aspiring,
avocational trader, what would you want to say to that person
?
 
Biff:  Focus on defense.  This game
might appear easy, but it isn't.  You will come face to face with the
darkest aspects of your personality.  There are some basics that you
should follow until you become comfortable with your own trading
psychology and methods.  If you find yourself violating these, you
should seriously question whether you have the makeup for trading,
because you are heading for disaster.

  •  Have a reasonable
    stop for every position you place.  Allow your stops to be hit without
    flinching.
  •  Don't use excessive leverage, and don't attempt to
    hit home runs.
  •  You are a student, and you must be willing to
    spend the time to learn.
  •  Avoid “gurus.”  Have faith in
    yourself.
  •  Eliminate the risk in any trade early by taking
    partial profits and raising your stops.

 
Leisa:   You trading room looks very
inviting! Biff, thanks for taking the time to share a few things with
Slopers. There is a reason why I call you Bifferific!