Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Fear Not Gold Bugs, Gold Ratios Well Intact

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What has been going on since mid-February is a burst of the ‘inflation trade’ as evidenced by silver’s leadership in the precious metals sector. This opened the barn door for all kinds of inflated animals to flee into the light of day, and for commodity and inflation boosters to do their thing. As often happens with silver, things were pushed to and even through their limits. Silver went up, oil went up, base metals went up and stocks went up.

But what we should do is retire back to some of the things that actually indicated bullish for the gold sector well before the mini hysteria (and market relief) cropped up. A pullback/correction in gold stocks would be an opportunity.

Gold vs. Silver took a real hit and now is bouncing, unsurprisingly as USD makes a final support bounce attempt of its own. (more…)

Blow Off in Progress, But ‘Launch Phase’ Confirmed

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On March 4 we reviewed the technical reasons why the gold sector was launching as opposed to blowing off. This, after articles began appearing calling the rise to that point a doomed parabolic blow off using daily charts. Those calling it a blow off were confused; silver in spring 2011 was a blow off in the terminal sense. But when a parabolic move comes off a bottom, it is an impulsive thrust to change the trend, possibly ending the bear market.

We have long noted that gold is the first mover to a new inflationary phase, as the previous deflationary backdrop gets played out. That is exactly what happened, even though the silver miners have made stunning strides in leading the exciting up move in silver that is currently in process. Silver, in taking over leadership from gold would confirm an inflationary phase. Gold is monetary and silver is an industrial commodity with monetary aspects as well; i.e. it is more positively correlated to inflated economies making the silver-gold ratio a sensitive indicator to inflation.

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Silver Has Broken Trend, But…

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Very simply, the weekly moving average that contained silver through its bear market has been broken to the upside. That is another booster of our assertion from earlier in the year that any coming blow off would not be terminal (ref. early 2011) but rather the completion of a launch phase off the bottom. This will be the case as long as silver is above the weekly EMA 55.

silver

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Gold Sector: Macrocosm Updated

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We do in depth analysis on a weekly basis (and every day in-week) because there is no substitute for working to be right with the market’s evolving situation as opposed to making bias or ego stoked calls in hopes of being right.

The current situation has seen some calling ‘bullish’ on the stock market despite a still intact bear trend (noted repeatedly in NFTRH), people going bullish on commodities despite their “bounce only” (also noted repeatedly) status in the absence of real, market-based inflation signals (which I do think are coming soon) and global markets bouncing within bear trends of varying degrees.

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