Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Is Gary Shilling?

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Sorry, I could not resist the title. Gary Shilling, an economist whose name I have heard over the years, has quite a body of work often revolving around Fed policy, GDP and deflation. The reason I looked into Mr. Shilling is an email from an NFTRH subscriber linking his thoughts on a coming boom…

The Boom is Coming, and Sooner Than You Think (July 18, 2014)

Okay, an economist and Bloomberg columnist thinks this is a boom (actually it is; we are after all in the age of Inflation onDemand © and a Boom/Bust cycle; currently in a cyclical boom concentrated in stocks). Let’s see what he thinks…

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Death of the Dollar? Gold is an Inflation Hedge? Really?

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[ed: Excerpted from NFTRH 301’s opening segment. Those looking for paint by numbers directions and casino game instructions (talking to readers at a certain site that may or may not re-publish this article… not you Slope, which I know will politely tolerate my ramblings 🙂 ) feel free to just skip the article. You will not get what you are looking for. The balance of NFTRH 301 did the nuts and bolts technical work on the relevant US and global markets, precious metals, currencies, etc.]

Take a look around the gold bull landscape and tell me how many of them are featuring a chart like this, showing the US dollar in a bullish short-term stance (to go with the weekly bullish stance we have noted for so long in the ‘Currencies’ segment).

usd.daily

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1 Reason to Tune out 90% of the Gold ‘Community’

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  1. Because they remained bullish throughout a bear market while spouting slogans and dogma, keeping gullible people in the grip of a fantasy that they are comrades in arms against evil forces and that in the end, good will prevail.

In the end gold will be assigned its value, but there is absolutely no reason that people should have been hurt in the interim by holding the speculations that revolve around gold, especially at the behest of cranks, charlatans and carnival barkers. (more…)

Semiconductor Sector’s Excitement Continues

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Dialing back to January of 2013, I am looking for clues about the coming phase for the economy, mostly as an input into whether or not I can think about turning bullish on gold again (here we remind you again of gold’s best investment case, which is counter not pro cyclical).

The answer, from a contact in the Semiconductor sector (AMAT, LRCX, MKSI, etc.) food chain was that the Semi equipment companies, which we called “canaries on the [economic] coal mine”, were ramping up and thus NFTRH’s view became bullish for the economy, at least short-term. (more…)

Economic Contraction Road Map

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Just a friendly reminder from your friends here at biiwii.com that we are in an economic contraction, not an expansion when viewing the big picture. Indeed, it is this site that has highlighted the little post-2012 expansion more vigorously than any other bearish leaning entity that I have seen, and earlier than most bullish entities I might add.

That was because of the Semiconductor Equipment ramp up → Palladium-Gold ratio → ISM upturn → Jobs upturn continuum we have been on. But that is a positive cycle within a much larger cycle that is very negative. Here’s the updated view of counter cyclical gold vs. cyclical commodities, which may be starting its next up turn. (more…)