Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Deflationary Straw Man

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straw.manNo matter the debates over inflation vs. deflation, increasing employment vs. sound monetary policy or systemic health vs. fragility (and whatever else is flying around in Jackson Hole this week), the CPI marches onward and upward. That is the system and it is predicated on creating enough money out of thin air while inflation signals are (somehow) held at bay.

The Straw Man* in this argument lives in the idea that inflation is not always destructive, that inflation can be used for good and honed, massaged and targeted just right to achieve positive ends to defeat the curse of deflation that is surely just around the next corner. Currently, the Straw Man is supported by the reality of the moment, which includes long-term Treasury yields remaining in their long-term secular down trend.

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HUI, Gold & Silver; Monthly Charts

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Outside of the sound practice that is physical gold ownership in a time of monetary gamesmanship, the precious metals sector is all about speculation, at least according to 9 out of 10 chart jockeys and momentum junkies micro managing every short-term twist and turn.

Indeed, NFTRH manages gold, silver and the gold stocks on down to the short-term views as well, but that is only because the long-term views have stated that this is a time to be paying attention. Do we pay attention because we have waited so long to promote our orthodoxy and finally be right as gold bugs? No. We pay attention when a chart tells us to pay attention.

While we manage the shorter-term views (both macro fundamental and technical) rigorously in the weekly report and interim updates, here I’d like to dial out to the big monthly picture with 3 large (click to expand as needed) charts of HUI, Gold and Silver to see their stories, which are the reasons we are managing shorter-term views. (more…)

Casino

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[edit] Simple chart update turns opinionated [separate the two, as needed]… and the title is changed from ‘US Stock Market’ to reflect said opinions.

The first chart shows the progress the SPX is making on our 60 minute view. It turned up above the support level noted a couple days ago and is now logically dwelling at the pattern neckline. This is still bullish obviously, having made a higher high. Resistance and the measured target (blue arrow) are noted.

spx

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The Society of the Spectacle

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spectacleI write all the time about bullshit detectors, cartoons and caricatures. I can be cranky, surly and intolerant of stupidity. I hate dumb commercialism and uncritical thinking. I want us all to be awake and dealing in reality, not giving up our critical power and dimly following someone else’s orthodoxies, especially those of so-called experts.

Of the negative feedback I get from public writing (outside of a couple whack jobs who periodically cannot keep themselves from sending along totally insane and hateful emails) by far the most frequent are along the lines of ‘I don’t know what you are talking about’ or ‘you fail to make a point’ or ‘this article is devoid of value and offers no actionable conclusion’ (hello SeekingAlpha, home of the linear, academic and/or auto-piloted paint-by-numbers thinker).

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US Stock Market; Weekly Charts

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With the help of some of NFTRH‘s standard weekly charts, we take a snapshot of the US stock market.

The Bank index is unbroken from a weekly perspective. People will talk about an H&S but it is not activated until the trend channel and the neckline (a well defined support area) are broken. BKX, along with the Semiconductors has been a notable leader to the entire surprise* phase of the bull market out of Q4, 2012.

bkx

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