[edit] Simple chart update turns opinionated [separate the two, as needed]… and the title is changed from ‘US Stock Market’ to reflect said opinions.
The first chart shows the progress the SPX is making on our 60 minute view. It turned up above the support level noted a couple days ago and is now logically dwelling at the pattern neckline. This is still bullish obviously, having made a higher high. Resistance and the measured target (blue arrow) are noted.
Switching to daily charts, the SOX is in a bullish looking short-term pattern, turning up from the first level of support in a zone we had labeled a ‘hot air’ zone (i.e. little support from 640 on down). A healthy and significant correction would take SOX to 560 at least. Two resistance levels shown in red will decide whether that is possible in the near term. I still hold Intel for fundamental reasons and a technical target, along with a chart buy on another Semi stock that will remain nameless because if its chart changes (from its current bull flag) it will be sold with no questions asked.
The Russell 2000 is still in a bear flag (sloppy though it is) below the moving averages. MACD has triggered and RSI is flirting with the 50 area. A look at the IWM ETF shows lame up volume, which would give support to the flag scenario. Having taken a small loss on a short here, I’ll just remain sidelines for a while considering the SPX upside target still looks good and bull relief (from their over done jitters) can be a thing to behold if casino patrons [edit: here’s the first hint of where this post is going 😉 ] get the momo bit in their mouth again.
Look wise guy, why do you insist on calling them “casino patrons”? They have been right for well over 5 years now!
Well, glad you asked… They are casino patrons because they are nothing more than trend followers, and mature trend followers at that. Anyone touting and looking heroic riding in the SPX’ wake now is taking a bet that is a sure winner as long as it is with the trend.
This old chart tells the story. Anyone uncritically or complacently bullish now is leveraging the horizontal yellow line at the bottom right to fit their view. That is not to say SPX will not rise to its measured target of 2192, it probably will. But anyone buying and holding the SPX is basically gambling that the Fed will continue its outrageous policy action (ZIRP) despite the strengthening economy and/or that external or unintended influences in the Treasury market will not alter their ability to continue to inflict this action upon the markets. In other words, it’s casino patron investing. Have a blast.
It is on record that I was bullish (to varying degrees) the asset markets in 2008/09, beginning with gold, gold mining (Q4 2008), silver and later copper, oil and the commodity sector. Eventually, at maximum fear – by you guessed it, panic stricken casino patrons – the stock market bottomed as the great inflationary operation fanned out to equities.
Some other bullish people of note amidst the Depression 2.0 headlines were Grantham, Hussman and my dear departed friend Jonathan Auerbach [1]. Why, even Prechter covered his short on the S&P 500. Look at the landscape of the bull contingent today and you see that it is Ma, Pa, every genius trend follower writing over at SeekingAlpha [2] and an embedded, policy-induced assumption that things will remain bullish. [3]
None of the above implies that stocks cannot continue to rise and that maybe ‘the correction’ is already over. Knuckle draggers with little ability to sense nuance will tell you that anyone talking negatively is a bear. But as is often noted about gold and its price/value dynamic, the same applies here. The stock market’s value (as would have been assigned by more natural macro fundamentals) and its price (as assigned by policy) are two different things. People who think otherwise are… well, you know what they are.
[1] Recalling Jon’s note to me, published in NFTRH 9 on 11.22.08: “Yes Gary, I spoke last night with one of the legendary street traders from the old days (pre 1990). He wants to leave Miami and work free at our shop because he has never seen a time when there is more money to be made the old fashioned way…picking off the sissies.”
[2] When posting something bullish on Crude Oil at SeekingAlpha in early 2009 I got ripped as being delusional by deflationist commenters. Today SeekingAlpha comments rip you a new one for even mentioning a garbage stock like 3D Systems (DDD) might be an ill-suited investment at the height of its bubble. It’s gone full frontal casino over there now.
[3] Except in parts of the mainstream media, which nurture the bull by printing bold bearish headlines every time the S&P 500 ticks down by a couple percent.
