Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
At the end of the two previous QE periods there have been three strong trends that have emerged each time. The first two are a significant pullback in equities and a strong rally on bonds. We may be approaching a significant high on equities soon, and I have a setup for a major further rally in bonds, though that may well only trigger if we see that strong pullback on equities.
The third is a strong rally on USD, and it’s that I would like to talk about today. USD has advanced strongly since hitting 78.93 in May, and I want to show where that is likely to lead over the next few months, and where it might then go over the next few years. (more…)
The Yellen news is out of the way, and next week is the week before the world comes back from summer vacation, so unless we get a geo political curve ball there is nothing in the charts that say jump ahead of the market and short it. In fact, it still does not even make sense to take anything off the table yet (next week is a different story).
The good deflation meme is still playing out; dollar stronger, bonds stronger, oil weaker, gold weaker, volatility weaker, institutions still buying, or at least holding, market has no choice but to stay fully invested.
I am still keeping it simple and shorting VXX through put spreads. I can envision a sub 20 UVXY before this market rolls over. For those in XIV, stay fully invested until 42.39 is breached (paid subscribers get a daily update on the stop). (more…)