Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Macro Turning in Favor of Gold

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Excerpt from NFTRH 804 on the macro turn in favor of the anti-bubble, gold

Turning

NFTRH is a top-down macro entity. It is not a stock pick rag, a technical analysis junkie, a market psychologist or a monetary/fiscal policy obsessive. It is all of those things, as needed. But primarily what we do is define the macro and then continually update the definition because it is always progressing, shifting, cycling and changing. From that work we then try to take it from ‘top-down’ definition and apply it to investment strategies.

I sometimes bristle at the hype that emanates from the precious metals sphere coming in the form of gold bug doctrine, perma-cheerleading, lecturing and rigid thinking. That is because like it or not, the macro is always shifting and doctrine or not, the macro shifted away from the precious metals in 2012 and only began recovering a gold-positive view in 2018. Since then, it’s been a volatile process with incomplete macro fundamentals.

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Update on Gold Ratios

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Updating gold ratios to other markets using associated ETFs

Sure, gold is a pretty and heavy object that people fall in love with (and express their love with). But it is also a primary market indicator here in NFTRH land. When it rises vs. cyclical ‘risk’ markets it implies rising risk in those markets. When it rises vs. inflation sensitive markets, it implies waning inflationary pressure. Generally, when gold rises in relation to markets and assets positively correlated to the economy, the indication is for a counter-cycle, an economic contraction.

Here’s the most recent snapshot by daily charts.

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As the Stars Align for Gold Stocks

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Gold stocks are among the most hated equities in the stock market, but that will change as the macro shifts in their favor for the first time since 2001-2003

It is the nature of the masses, the majority, the consensus… the HERD, to follow the trend. It is a lot easier to swim downstream than to fight the current. Just go with the flow. And from a US-centric view the flow has, with a blessed interruption from 2001 to 2003, been inflationary monetary policy free flowing into asset markets as needed and on demand at every point of financial crisis since. Armageddon ’08 and the COVID crash were two primary examples.

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Shorting the Broad Stock Market

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Probably Not the Best Way to Go

If you want to short the stock market, it may be best to be focused rather than painting with a broad brush……..

The US stock market has been undergoing internal rotations lately. We anticipated potential rotations to the more cyclical areas like Energy and Materials, as opposed to the Tech/Growth areas that Goldilocks has favored for most of the last year (also as anticipated, a year ago).

As for Energy and Materials, per the NFTRH Trade Log the Energy sector (XLE) was added on 2.8.24 and the Materials sector (XLB) was viewed as technically quite bullish in NFTRH 798 (2.25.24) and added per the Trade Log on 2.26.24, with an ultimate upside target well higher than the current level.

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Ponzi Economy, 2024

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NFTRH 799’s opening segment illustrating unsustainable debt leverage

Below is an exercise that considers real economic/macro/market indicators and one writer’s view of what is in play this election year. I avoid becoming enmeshed in politics like I avoid the plague. But this is probably the most important, not to mention bizarre, scary and angry election year ever. Now think about the robo-expansion of debt (what’s a few more $Trillion for the cause, eh?) at this crucial time. There is not a partisan bone in my body because I don’t believe in the system itself, let alone either of the modern versions of the parties dominating that system.

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