Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold is the Anti-Bubble

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Gold price still disappointing speculators, but it’s doing as it should do

Back in August I wrote an article called Gold: The Anti-Bubble. The point being that if you want to consider an asset to be sound value in a world of ongoing plays boosted by inflationary policy, speculating upon it – especially at a time when the cyclical risk ‘on’ trades are in upside momentum mode – is illogical. As are expectations for it to perform up to par with said bubble beneficiaries (as noted previously, I define the bubble as monetary and fiscal policy and the stock market as a direct beneficiary) as long as… It’s a Bubble, and It’s Intact.

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US Stock Market – In Need of a Correction

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The US stock market (SPX) is overbought and vulnerable in the near-term

Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 797:

The US stock market is in need of a correction. Now, will it get one?

On the CPI down day I looked at the market and decided to leave well enough alone because of course they were going to gun it to punish anyone shorting that down day on supposedly bad news (pumping up the hawkish Fed). But I looked at the gap near the all-time highs on the daily chart of SPX and thought ‘hmm, if they close that gap maybe give it a shot…’. They closed the gap and I gave it a shot.

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It’s a Bubble, and it’s Intact

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The bubble in ‘no holds barred’ monetary policy (birthed under Alan Greenspan) and the bullish markets it benefits are in their third decade

Gold, meanwhile, will not be ready until the “post” bubble

Introduction

This is an article from a source, yours truly, who considers it his job to define the ‘top down’ macro before trying to pick stocks. In other words, it is important to get the big picture macro, as well as its shorter-term rotations, right before trying to select stocks and the sectors they reside in. In an extreme example, the gold mining sector has been most often impaired by the ‘bubble on’ macro, including its inflationary phases, not helped by it. “Post-bubble” will be a different story. But you can’t change the macro because of ‘want’. It will change when it is good and ready.

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