Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Q4 2023 Broad Seasonal Situation

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SPX bounce underway, but resistance upcoming

This article discusses one diverse component of the broad global markets; the US S&P 500. The market has some poor underpinnings that we routinely keep track of in NFTRH and are beyond the scope of this public article. Also beyond the scope are macro risk indicators, including the US dollar and its relationship with the Gold/Silver ratio.

Filtering all of that out, we have anticipated a seasonal bounce or rally due to market sentiment well biased to over-bearish, oversold conditions and the seasonal pattern (on average) for SPX that has turned up, as per this graphic first presented in NFTRH 779 on October 15.

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Will Gold Mining Stocks Look Past Q3?

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Gold mining stock charts have not yet confirmed a sustainable rally, and Q3 fundamentals may be a headwind

We have used this daily chart of the gold stock ETF, GDX in written and video updates to keep NFTRH subscribers apprised of the progress of the bounce from the early October low (after previously using the chart to manage the long correction that began with the May double top).

Let’s update the daily technical situation by noting that the GDX rally has halted where it should have halted, as we’ve expected resistance at or below the 200 day moving average (30.49) and/or clear visual resistance at 30. The pullback is in progress and has done a good thing by filling the upper gap as it grinds and tests the 50 day moving average. All normal.

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As the New Macro Engages, Gold Stocks to Shine

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Gold stocks are rallying in the short-term, but the real move may still be ahead

This article views the gold stock sector’s big picture bullish situation from the standpoint of a single indicator, the HUI/Gold ratio and its relationship to the 30 year Treasury bond yield.

On the shorter-term and without going into tactical detail in a public post, the gold stock sector will either continue bouncing to end the correction that has been in force since the spring or it will take a final plunge. A final shakeout that could come amid vastly improved or improving fundamentals. As of the end of Q3 those fundamentals had not improved. They had degraded.

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The Spectacle, Gold and a New Financial Era

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Commoditization of humanity now exponentially worse as a new financial era engages and gold conspicuously clings to support

This is a financial market article that also delves into social commentary. The new macro, as exemplified by the 30 year Treasury Bond yield chart below, will bring change; both social and financial. The two are, of course, related. Here we do not come to firm conclusions, and so perhaps the article does not get picked up by some re-publishers. But in a time of change, I believe that the process of interpretation is more important than forming conclusions, just yet. Conclusions will be handled by trend followers, promoters and gurus, as they have been for decades.

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