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There sure are a lot more indicators NFTRH uses to gauge the macro, but these three will suffice for the point of this article, which is that change is coming and the nature of that change could not be more different in its two potentials.
(more…)Ever since the 30 year Treasury bond yield (one ‘top-down’ macro tool NFTRH uses to gauge the environment so that we may invest in, speculate upon or avoid certain situations, accordingly) broke its Continuum of pleasantly declining long-term Treasury bond yields, macro nerds have been called to task in order to correctly interpret the forward backdrop that this break implies. The note at the upper right of the chart asks the key question.
The question is ‘why?’. Why do Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve continue to tilt against the fading enemy known as inflation?
Just as a standard financial insurance policy is meant to only pay out when bad things happen, gold will only pay out when bad financial things happen. Sure, it’s assigned price can rise with other asset markets, but it’s price related to risk assets will under-perform when said risk assets are in a bull phase or an unbroken bubble.
As you can see, the bubble in policy-making, and thus, risk assets, is unbroken. Insurance has not been needed, yet. Why would anyone want to speculate on gold when its relative performance is so poor?
(more…)Gold Stock Correction From a Seasonal View
We begin this article, which updates the gold stock correction, as a platform for providing information requested by two NFTRH subscribers. Below are the recent seasonal tendencies for GDX. I’ve elected to use only the years from 2018 to current in order to keep the graph clean and to show that 2023 is shaping up per the norm in the post-pandemic era.
