Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Fed Flips, USD Flops, Runway Clear For a Not so Soft Landing

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Seasonal party continues, but danger ahead

The strategy of how to navigate what is ahead has been generally covered in NFTRH and with post-FOMC clarity, it is being fine-tuned further, into an actionable game plan for the coming months per a detailed NFTRH+ update this morning.

This will feature the precious metals, beneficiaries of a weakening Fed, but also likely commodity related trades/investments which, counterintuitively, would benefit from the ‘declining inflation’ headlines since they were impaired for so long by the amplified inflation headlines and corresponding hawkish Fed.

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Gold Stocks To Rise As Positive Leverage Returns

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The next leg of the gold stock bull market is in play amid confusion, misunderstanding and noise

Please see edit at the bottom of the article. The next leg of the bull is in “play”, but it is not yet technically activated. The sector will be subject to a potential broad market bear or liquidation in 2024. What is “activated” now is a rally; a potentially strong one. We’ll evaluate future risk/reward at the appropriate time.

First off, despite the pain and agony endured by long-term holders of gold stocks, it is a bull market and it has been a bull market since the January, 2016 low (with bull market defined as a series of higher highs/lows).

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A Screed About the Market & the Policy Behind it

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SPECIAL CYBER-MONDAY NOTICE: I rarely discount my subscriptions, and when I do, it is usually very modest. Not today. I’m eager for more subscribers, so I’m offering my Annual Bronze package for a Tim-has-gone-crazy 80% off. It’s $39.95 for the entire freakin’ year, so grab it now since it is only good today. You can see a list of all the goodies you get on this page.

An excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 785 on the state of the US stock market bubble as developed and sustained by another bubble (in policy-making).

NFTRH 785 started off with a lot of opinions (based on facts and indicators) before settling in to a more normal report covering key markets as usual. Meanwhile, the opening segment is more an unvarnished screed than actual market analysis, which is NFTRH’s normal mode and which we do reliably each week.

A reminder that on average, the seasonal pattern for SPX rises into year end, pulls back, ticks a new high early in the year, pulls back and then rallies into the ‘sell in May/June’ time frame. If only a seasonal average were a predictor. But it isn’t. It’s a historical average, a long-term bias, subject to failure in any given year.

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Copper/Gold Ratio: Still Counter-Cyclical

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The Copper/Gold ratio has been indicating an oncoming counter-cyclical environment since breaking down in June, 2022

Copper: Cyclical, inflation sensitive and a material of positive economic progress.

Gold: Much more counter-cyclical, less inflation sensitive and a ‘liquidity haven’ material of long-term monetary value.

I have not posted the monthly chart of the Copper/Gold ratio probably since last year, as 2023 has been all about disinflationary Goldilocks recovery, rather than a deflationary liquidity crisis. However, as Goldilocks matures into old age, it is worth keeping tabs on the original thesis, which is Inflation > Disinflationary Goldilocks > Deflation scare/liquidity crisis.

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Gold Stocks: Is the Time Really Now?

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Gold stocks are not yet unique within the wider macro, but that does not preclude a move to 40 by GDX

[edit] Interesting, however, that on the day this was written (pre-market, 11/16) gold stocks came out of the gate positive while much of the rest of the macro is going the other way (including the commodity producers that the Au miners so often get lumped in with). It’s just an inkling, but interesting. Here is a visual per this X post.

commodities
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