Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

After the Yield Curve Inversion

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As the 10yr-2yr yield curve inversion plays out, the time is coming for a turn in fortunes

Before proceeding, I’d like to remind you that this article is not written by a perma-bear. It is important to have credibility and indeed, NFTRH planned for a potential humdinger of a bear market rally back in Q4, 2022 based on the inputs of then extremely over-bearish sentiment, the bullish mid-term election cycle (which on average projects bullish for a year, post-election), a coming fade in inflation signals (with the attendant hopes for a softening Fed) being its primary elements. Here is one post discussing the rally in November, 2022.

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Gold Miners on Schedule

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Gold miners continue to correct per projections as GDX drops toward a buy zone

The gold and silver Commitments of Traders, as tracked each week in NFTRH leading into the correction, indicated a potential for a coming decline in gold, silver and the gold miners. A correction, not the end of the bull phase by this sentiment measure. CoT was overdone, but not extreme to a bull killer degree.

This as the macro fundamentals had been positive since late 2022 and gold miners’ technical situation bullish, but in doubt as to the ability to continue upward in the near-term.

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Gold Suppression or Confidence?

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Gold price suppression is the excuse du jour for its lack of relative performance; but that is not the reason

First let me get this in print up front; the gold price (like most/all markets) is manipulated in different ways. It can be talked down, it can be subject to paper buying/selling that does not bear resemblance to its street value (per the supply/demand dynamics of the physical market), and it can be subject to misguided mass emotions, both on the upside and downside. All markets are manipulated in one way or another or stimulated by mass emotion. For example, every time a Fed mouthpiece opens its orifice and the market reacts, it is manipulation by definition.

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Inflation Bugs Puking

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The April PPI report continues the disinflationary theme

The April PPI report came in to the disinflationary side, and as a side note unemployment claims jumped to the highest level since 2021. And inflation-centric goldbugs are scattering out of the inflation stuff, a label the majority of them wrongly assign to gold and worse, gold stocks. I just wish I could set my watch by these herds because then I’d sell everything and await the inevitable opportunity they produce.

However, on this cycle I have been much lighter on gold stocks than I will be when the next buying opportunity comes as the inflation bugs scatter amid accelerating real fundamentals *, probably amid a deflation scare if NFTRH’s existing theme, to which I strongly considered an alternative last weekend, manifests. But as yet, no Dedollarisation as USD holds support after the weak inflation data this week.

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Dedollarisation?

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Dedollarisation; the hip new buzz phrase may actually play out this time, for a while

The multitude of analysts that have been waiting for the “death of the dollar” (DoD) for at least a couple of decades now have a new jingle. “Dedollarisation” by global entities trading in goods and services will finally kill old Uncle Buck, or if you like, remove “King Dollar” from his throne.

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