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We projected a rally to run from Q4, 2022 to or through Q1, 2023. It is technically intact with the Gold/Copper ratio trending down since last summer. What’s more, the global market rally has been led by Doctor Copper and companies that dig Cu out of the ground. So the Gold/Copper ratio has trended down the whole way, even as gold has ground out uptrends vs. some other commodities and stock markets.
(more…)Excerpted from the February 19th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#745)
The news is full of articles now discussing how food (Staples) producer prices are going to continue rising, how warehouse and distribution channels are pushing “inflation” higher, how charges to use cargo containers and transportation are all pushing “inflation” higher.
The inflationary acts were committed in 2020 and 2021. The inflation was inflicted then and is now history. What is happening now is a plethora of knock-on effects from the inflation. It’s lagging, sticky and in some cases opportunistic and greedy stuff that is not inflation but instead, the predictable after-effects of it.
(more…)Let’s take a look at a rarity for me; a public article discussing a nominal technical situation rather than bopping you over the head with macro fundamentals and macro indicators. We review technicals in gold stocks and other markets weekly in NFTRH, and not so much publicly because straight TA is the compass we use to navigate what the macro tells us. In other words, it is for subscribers to gain perspective and parameters ahead of time, not for me to regale the public with. But in this article I want to publicly go back to my first love, which is nominal TA (markets, stocks, etc.), which was how I started out longer ago than I care to believe.
(more…)In 2021 and 2022 we called the Federal Reserve “tardy” on several occasions as they doggedly held to their “transitory” inflation stance long after reasonable people (using the right indicators) would have given up on such a notion. In this May 2, 2022 article we noted that they had finally started to move… too late.
Eggheads tardy in doing the right thing
It seems that all too often lately the gold mining sector is in tow with commodities in general and broad global stocks in its ups and downs. As a leader, but not THE leader of the rally that is fine for now as long as we’re still on the back end of the originally projected Q4-Q1 rally in broad asset markets.
But if I am correct in the view of a real bull market in gold and especially the miners, at some point this will have to change. Gold miners are counter-cyclical businesses and the fact that their cost inputs like energy, materials and even human resources are rising in cost is not positive. While the fact that gold has been outperforming most of these for the last 3 to 6 months is positive, the real play will begin when investors look at their portfolios, beaten to a pulp, and see only one sector (or one of a very few sectors) rising while a bear market resumes in cyclical, risk ‘on’ assets.
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