Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Copper/Gold Ratio

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“The metals” is not a thing says the Copper/Gold ratio; but a more in-depth macro view is required as this Greed/Fear ratio breaks down

To preface, I have no right to be right about the markets. All I have are indications that the herds either don’t know about or don’t care about (I know this by relative Twitter follows and, I assume, website popularity compared to promotional interests tending the herds and instigating their greed). *

So, any post like this can turn out to be wrong if, in this example, the Copper/Gold ratio somehow reverses, turns and burns, painting me as wrong headed. But it has not done that. What it has done is continue with the favored NFTRH macro theme that has been in place for most of the last year. That theme is that while the herds focus on backward looking indicators (and promotions), the forward looking ones have pointed to a continuum of inflation>disinflation>deflation scare in the interim to any new inflation cycle out on the distant horizon.

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Why Gold?

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If the decades old bubble in paper assets is ending, that’s why gold!

Various promotions along the way of the Continuum have distilled the case for gold down to handy buzz phrases like “got Gold?” as if it were a carton of milk. Other promotions have presented gold as the go-to asset through all types of macro phases, from “fiat is gonna blow up any day now” to “inflation is gonna eat your future” to “a deflationary Armageddon is on the way”.

Yet all along the Continuum, policymakers papered it over, inflated the mess at every crisis as long as the Continuum allowed.*

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SPX: Pleasure First, Then Pain

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The S&P 500 (weekly, log scale) and a few of its risk indicators

I have recently started making videos that tend to be shorter and maybe more to the point than some of my articles, and am gaining a comfort level with this medium, and so here is the latest macro blurb to check out. For we nerds, this stuff is fascinating. Way more so than stock picking, Fed obsession, doom and gloom or bull greed forecasting. Just a market and the indicators informing its forward view.

The overwhelming view I get from this is that Wayne and Garth can party one now, possibly even to the tune of ‘happy days are here again!’… before the real bear market gets going in H2, 2023. For the coming bear trigger we are watching short-term technical levels using daily charts.