Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold Bug Survivors Prepare to Capitalize

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It has been a classic washout in the gold stock sector, but if positioned correctly opportunity is setting up

  • The ‘macro’ and sector fundamentals have been incomplete (details beyond the scope of this article, but they are not the easy, low hanging fruit that many in the ‘gold adviser’ herd focus on).
  • The technicals have advised a downtrend since mid-2020 with the exception of one head fake in March-April, 2022.
  • Sentiment, which was over-bullish in mid-2020 and April 2022 is now opposite, and very bullish on a contrarian basis.
  • The sector is deeply oversold as evidenced by an extreme in the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (BPGDM).
  • Commitments of Traders data for gold and silver are positive and very positive, respectively on a contrarian basis.
  • As has been proven by the facts of recent history, the NFTRH view of cyclical (as opposed to ‘stag’) inflation being terrible for gold stocks was correct, even as this view was lost in the din of opposing – and tragically wrong – opinions by heavily followed Twitter ‘influencers’ and other dignitaries.
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Bounce or Something More?

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Commodities have been corrected hard, generally to support

It is amazing how compressed the cycles are in the markets these days. But maybe it’s not so surprising when you consider the constant involvement of meddling, manipulating central banks and even governments. Add a dash of hysterical media and the human instinct for knee-jerk herding and voila, there you have it; sentiment in commodities (and the inflation trades in general) going from absolutely rock solid (over) bullish to bleak in the span of a month.

All of this in the wake of an entity that held out dovish as long as it could before being directed by the market to put on its hawk costume and go steroidal in its inflation fighting stance. Seriously, market participants are taking their cues from a monetary authority that itself is taking cues from the bond market’s signaling (tardy though they were on the uptake). The link above shows the 3 month T-bill yield’s directive that the Fed aggressively raise rates back back in February. There were other signals as well demanding the same.

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‘Anti’ Markets

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These daily charts are flipped over to a view that is ‘anti’ their normal selves

Whereas I have often referred to the improbably bullish (to many) US dollar as an anti-market, the liquidity collector from the global liquidity driven and speculative mess created by the Fed and its fellows, here is a look at some markets (ETFs & indexes) in their opposite or ‘anti’ suit. In other words, here are some charts flipped over. If the chart is bullish the underlying asset/market is not.

The major risk in my opinion is in the over-hyped inflation trades as inflation signals fade. That means commodities, mainly. But also Materials, Financials and other areas thought to be ‘reflation’ sensitive and highly cyclical.

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Gold Miners Checkup

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As they leverage the macro, what’s good for gold is even better for gold miners

After last week’s article, in which we noted a unique move on ‘CPI Friday’ as gold and the miners put in an expected test of the lows and quickly reversed upward, unique among a world full of bearish markets…

A pivotal juncture for gold and gold stocks

…let’s take a checkup on and important fundamental consideration in the wake of FOMC and the .75% rate hike that everyone knew was coming.

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Pivotal Juncture for Gold Stocks

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Another hot CPI fails to suppress gold

With FOMC on tap with an upcoming .5% rate hike, gold got hammered and bounced back with a vengeance on ‘CPI’ Friday. The Fed will raise the Funds Rate at least .5% next week. So says not me, but the wise guys whose job it is to correctly anticipate FOMC policy. Indeed, a full 20% of CME traders expect .75%, up from our last check on June 3.

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