Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Q4-Q1 Plan Engages

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Relief provided by an easing October CPI ‘inflation’ report the trigger

It was bound to happen sooner or later. October finally showed an easing comp in what most people think of as inflation (CPI)* and markets that were ripe to rally for other reasons used the ‘CPI inflation’ report as the trigger.

NFTRH has been on alert for a potentially positive Q4, 2022 to Q1, 2023 seasonal play since first uncovering the post mid-term election cycle’s positive implications over a month ago (NFTRH 725).

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Gold Stocks: Until ‘Things Fall Apart’

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Party on if you will, but the gold mining fundamental case is not complete

Back on October 14th we reviewed why a post-bubble contraction would be the proper time to buy gold mining stocks for fundamental reasons (even as they might possibly be dropping despite improving fundamentals). *

On October 28th we noted that the fundamental case has not engaged, not quite yet. We also noted big picture technical support parameters that need to hold for the play to avoid breaking down.

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Gold Stocks: Not Quite Yet

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Macro changing in favor of the gold stock sector is and has been a process

The process began with the leveling off of inflation’s momentum and continued as the global economy began to show signs of weakness (e.g. US manufacturing deceleration and developing supply chain slack among several other problem areas as exposed during the current earnings season).

While the nominal sector (HUI or the ETFs, GDX and GDXJ) has been bouncing within its intact downtrend it would be best to track other macro considerations along with the chart TA, which could signal a new bull phase by either completing a daily chart bottom/base (which nearly happened on Wednesday, but at least temporarily failed as the index and ETFs did not take out the October 4th highs) or completing a final decline, preferably amid much fear and angst among whatever inflation bugs may still be infesting the sector.

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“Post-Bubble Contraction”

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“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand

Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble phases because the Fed’s main macro manipulation tool, bonds, were in a multi-decade long trend of disinflationary signaling.

To this point with respect to the PBC, timing has been an issue. This is not a critique of Hoye, a fine financial historian and macro fundamental analyst. In fact, it is the opposite. It is from him that I learned the proper fundamentals for gold and especially the gold mining industry. But perfectly good deflationary meltdowns (of previous inflationary operations) were foiled in both 2008 and 2020.

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The Gold Stock Road Map

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It’s a long and volatile road for the gold miners

A daily chart snapshot of the current technical situation for the HUI Gold Bugs index shows a small Head & Shoulders pattern that formed in July-August as noted in this August 28th NFTRH premium update (now public) before it broke down.

So we have Huey holding the neckline of an ugly little pattern today. What I find interesting though is that if the neckline is lost the pattern’s target would be around 178, which… is support area per the weekly chart.

You can see both charts as they were in the update linked above in August.

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