Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

2022: The Golden Year?

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In 2022 the gold price has started to validate our projection from last December, and 2023 should see a bull move in gold miners emerge for all to see (and one day chase due to FOMO)

Reference 2022: The Golden Year as published on December 30th, 2021.

It’s been touch and go all year but the gold price could be shaking out in support of the admittedly sensational title of that article. Let’s take a checkup, starting with a paragraph from the year ago article.

Pardon the promotional sound of the title. I realize it, and I’m putting it up there anyway. There is a time for temperance and there is a time for promotion. Too many in the gold sphere forget about that first thing when risk is high, and in August, 2020 it was at nosebleed levels.

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As Inflation Signals Fade, the Gold Mining Sector Outperforms

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The gold mining sector is doing what it should do amid fading inflation

If you have tuned out inflationist gold bugs since mid-2020 you are now in position to capitalize, unlike scores of inflation bugs who’d already bought (and likely sold into tax loss season, 2022).

Readers of nftrh.com have seen this space write many times how gold is not about inflation. At least not primarily. That compounds with the gold miners, which leverage gold’s standing within the inflated (and periodically deflated) macro. The gold mining sector is not about inflation. As in 2003-2008 the gold miners can rise during an inflationary phase, but as in Q4, 2008 they would then be summarily executed due to poor accumulated fundamentals.

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HUI Rally Hits Short-Term Target

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HUI Gold Bugs index has hit the bottom/bounce target at the daily SMA 200

Note: This post was begun on December 1, up to and including the two HUI charts below. The post was completed on December 2, after the November payrolls provided a good instigation for a broad market pullback, which included a ding to the miners from this logical resistance point.

December 1

The HUI rally has hit the logical resistance target where the 200 day moving average meets clear lateral resistance. It has done so in a not particularly overbought fashion due to the chop and grind it took to get here off the lows of the shaded bottoming pattern that we established and tracked in NFTRH over the last several weeks.

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NFTRH Excerpt on Bonds and Gold

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NFTRH 732 excerpt discusses bonds and bond market indicators with respect to the gold price

US Bond Market

For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the fact that my earliest (gold bug) training in the markets was with an eye toward the dangers of debt in a fiat driven system.

In other words, how could I take seriously the debt of a government hopelessly in multi-trillions of dollars in debt and adding to it all the time? That is what a bond as an investment is, a call on the debt of, in this case, a supposedly high quality entity (the US government). No thank you.

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Inflation Easing & the Miners

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The macro market and economic backdrop continues to pivot favorable for the gold mining sector

The risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this article and I’ve parroted them in several blog posts at nftrh.com. But suffice it to say, the gold stock sector did the work it was supposed to do since August, 2020.

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