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And the Fed is listening.
Yesterday I made a sarcasm-tinged post about the parade of Fed jawbones in the media and the coordinated and thus comical desperation they seem to exhibit. The stern message is that the Fed Funds rate could be raised at any time (which is possible even before the next FOMC meeting on March 16, in my opinion).
(more…)As unpopular it may be, I cannot alter the truth as I see it. Marketing is fine, but never at the expense of truth, as with much financial media/analysis (with little disclaimers tucked in below the fold).
In my opinion, a sizeable component of the gold ‘market’ is actually marketing; to the fearful, to the naive, to the biased, to the politically rigid… Also in my opinion, Twitter is a breeding ground made for brief promos, sloganeering and bias reinforcement.
(more…)The article’s title is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day to day, week to week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow.
[edit] Since this article will be distributed to a wider viewership than nftrh.com, where regular readers know I take pains not to hype this most precious ‘value’ asset, take note that a positive risk vs. reward does not mean run out and go whole hog gold stock bull right this minute. Risk vs. reward is a condition, but not a timer. The miners, as of now, are on a seasonal bounce/rally. But with patience, the sector is setting up to distinguish itself as unique and quite bullish in 2022.
As today’s (Thursday’s) market activity shows, the bubble is still in force as US stock markets/sectors generally remain intact (for the most part, with some notable exceptions outside of the headliners, as certain table legs get kicked out). But gold is in a beautiful Cup & Handle structure, as I’ve shown repeatedly (ref. 2022: The Golden Year) since NFTRH began projecting the handle-making in the summer of 2020.
What’s more, gold’s ‘real’, commodity adjusted price has been declining since the overdone 2020 upside as well. Risk is with commodities (and stocks) and reward – with patience – is with gold and when they leverage a future macro, gold stocks.
(more…)A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed
On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of Oz).
The Fed created the cyclical inflation (in NFTRH we detailed and managed the process successfully in real time) and thus the Fed created the cycle. In 2021 the Fed was exposed to the public as the agent of inflation it actually is, and when the inflation threatened to get out of hand they went into damage control mode. Now the Fed is trying to cool the inflation, which means cooling the cycle itself. You can’t have your inflated cake and eat it too. Not when the racket is exposed to the public.
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