Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

2022: The Golden Year

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The NFTRH big picture view for gold has been bullish since calling a top in mid-2020

Pardon the promotional sound of the title. I realize it, and I’m putting it up there anyway. There is a time for temperance and there is a time for promotion. Too many in the gold sphere forget about that first thing when risk is high, and in August, 2020 it was at nosebleed levels.

As you can see, the ‘real’ commodity adjusted price of gold was already in a long-term bull market from 2008 and it had actually turned up in 2019 before getting put all out of whack during 2020’s deflationary fear fest. The relief shown in this indicator has been in play for as long as the public has been aware of the inflation created by the Fed and the ‘inflation trades’ associated with it.

Good news for gold bugs? Risk is about a million times lower now than it was in the summer of 2020 as the ratio comes back on trend.

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Copper/Gold at Epic Decision Point

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Copper/Gold ratio teases cyclical inflation bulls and bears alike, but…

…it’s going to break one way or the other soon enough.

If you value gold’s standing in relation to industrial metals as a key market/financial/economic indicator as I do, then you view the ongoing consolidation in the copper price to the gold price as a key indicator (among several NFTRH tools) going forward.

I cannot make the macro do what I want it to do, but I sure can be super interested in an indicator that has made several false moves to the positive and negative sides in 2021 as we head into a year of changes to come (one way or another) in 2022. Cu/Au is making less and less volatile spikes and drops as it is currently pinched between the converging daily SMA 50 and 200.

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COVID-19: 4th Wave

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Before this week’s COVID mutant headlines served well to take more enthusiasm out of a frothy market that we have been noting to be at longer-term ‘structural’ (as opposed to varying short-term) sentiment risk, we took a look at COVID-19 from a different perspective.

NFTRH 682 discussed the contrary deflationary or dis-inflationary view that could re-set the Fed from its current hawkish pretense. #682 also presented the case for continued inflation. Both macro conditions were covered and will be covered until things shake out one way, the other, or both, or neither (read: Goldilocks) along with strategic stock highlights as they relate to the macro environment and, assuming a stable market over the next several weeks, some seasonal buy opportunities due to tax loss selling.

I thought it was interesting that today’s COVID mutant news has piggy backed on top of an already concerning situation as noted last weekend. From the November 21 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole…

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