Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Garth, Wayne… Mo?

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Fo-Moe? Faux-Moe? Whatever it is, FOMO-driven MOMO is in play

Manic forces likely driven by the fear of missing out seem to be overtaking markets. This environment of inflation-fueled speculation was created by the 2020 Federal Reserve in panic mode, while today the 2021 Federal Reserve is trying to manage us in the other direction according to the James Bullard indicator, at least. How difficult might it be to put all of these released animal spirits back in the box? Eh James? Eh Jerome? Does Lael even want them back in a box? How about Janet (not on the FOMC I know, but she’s always there in the side car)?

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Gold Stocks: Short-term Bullish, but…

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An update of the gold stock bounce

As a TA, I respect charts first and foremost. On occasion that respect has burned me as I’ve missed big profit opportunity or not seen a disaster unfolding that the charts missed. But much more often it helps me profit or saves me from disastrous ends. TA is just one tool in the box. An important one, but it should not stand alone. With the gold stocks especially, the correct macro-fundamentals matter.

Lately, with respect to the HUI Gold Bugs index, TA has helped me (and NFTRH subscribers) manage a low born of over-bearish sentiment at a key long-term support area (230 +/-), one of three downside targets we’ve had open since the correction began in summer 2020. For management of the correction and its bounces we’ve used various charts of varying detail and time frames. But last week in NFTRH 680 we simplified to the daily view below. With the rally now in full flight it is time to be paying attention to what may come next.

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Beyond Gold Buggery; Sectors Reviewed

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A brief sector review

While I hold a special place (in my thoughts and in NFTRH) for the gold stock sector due to its counter-cyclical nature, it’s a big market out there and a strategic view of the macro helps with successful positioning. Following is a snapshot of some sectors/markets with general thoughts on each. I will provide one chart or graphic for each but not mark them up or get into too much technical or fundamental detail. There’s a weekend report for all of that stuff. For now, a brief review.

Gold/Silver Mining & Royalty

Gold miners have been fundamentally impaired by the inflationary macro as costs (energy, materials, humans) have outpaced product (gold) for well over a year. As with other markets/sectors, sentiment became overdone to the downside in September and from there (one of our key downside support targets at 230) we projected a bounce and with some stops and starts, the rally logically began.

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Inflationary Wonderland

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Inflation has permeated the macro markets; where to from here?

Apologies in advance for some of the possibly confusing content to follow. But if this were easy anyone could do it, eh? There are a lot of balls in the air; balls known as inflation vs. deflation and most of all time frames.

The media present inflation as this guy picking out higher priced fruit. Wait til he gets to the meat department! You can click the graphic for the article at CNBC.

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NFT… arrrRH

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Dear Slope people, this is a different post than my usual. If Tim decides it is worth posting please take it in the spirit intended, which is the spirit of despising bubbles and especially bubbles that are so transparent and promoted at the hands of the media/celebrity complex. –Gary

Response from Tim: Nah, Gary, I’m delighted you did this post. I think the NFT thing is insane too, with one obvious exception.

NOTES FROM THE rabbit hole…NFTrh

The NFT part is all that matters. Not the words “notes from the”, implying information delivered from somewhere. Not “rabbit hole”, implying that somewhere is a pretty different, even weird place.

You see, with my antiquated notions of sound market management, which includes investment and/or speculation in real assets, including real monetary value (gold), equities of real companies doing real things and the commodities consumed during real… okay, manufactured economic growth, it is really pretty odd that I am now seen, because of 3 stupid letters, by some as part of the newest craze in the financial markets, the Non Fungible Tokens craze.

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