Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

“When the Pig Tops”

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Note from Tim: I wanted to preface this (typically superb) post from NFTRH with something that happens very rarely.…….a coupon to Slope Plus for those of you considering it.  I am offering a free month for you to try the service by clicking on this link. When you do, enter the coupon code winter2017 and it will give you the first month for free. (This coupon is only going to be working for a few days, so don’t lollygag).

0225-coupon

Besides all the normal extras you get as a Slope Plus subscriber, you’ll also be getting the very best ideas I’ve got (many of which have been doing really well, even in this market, as you’ll see once you have access). I hope you’ll give it a try. On with the regular post now…………

Flying Pig

Filed under the category ‘smartest group of subscribers in the world’, I got an email from NFTRH subscriber Joe F. last week as I was mechanically managing the gold market in my somewhat downplayed, unexciting way…

“You win 9 out of 10 [I don’t, actually], but I think the setup is there for gold to go immediately.”

For a writer of many words over many years, I can sometimes grunt out the most basic of responses…

“When the pig tops.”

The Pig of course, is the US stock market (and many associated global stock markets as well).  Said Pig has slopped, slopped some more and most recently begun actually flying, during its bull phase coming out of last summer’s ‘don’t be short!’ signal at the depths of the Brexit reaction.

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First 100 Days Since Election… Bullish, Right?

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On the surface, Trump’s 1st 100 days (since election) ‘comp’ well with JFK, as well as Bush 1 and Clinton.  Each of these presidents saw successful markets for the rest of the year.  From data supplied by Bespoke (whose premium service is a good market data source) I created this table showing the S&P 500’s ‘1st 100 days since election’ percentage, the largest decline from a closing high, the next 100 days and the rest of the year (ROY).

Bullish, right?  JKF, Bush 1 and to a lesser degree, Clinton would say so.

presidential 1st 100

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Stocks and Gold: the Next Opportunity

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Unless you visit the Notes From the Rabbit Hole website regularly, you might think the title of this article implies it is written by a market analyst pretending to know what will happen; like a top in the stock market or a resumed bull cycle in gold.  You might also think it is written by one of the writers who’ve either a) been fighting the stock bull since the bearish market terminated a year ago or b) been a perma gold bug bull.

So once again, we have our disclaimers because in a milieu of quickly forgotten soundbites, integrity is important.  So I point you to a couple of posts (among many others) that indicated, when the time was right for people to get bullish the stock market in favor of gold.

AMAT Chirps, B2B Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode (May 30, 2016) (more…)

Moving Targets: Investors Need to Discriminate!

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Robot-48x48In the current political climate herds are running every which way.  There is the anti-Trump herd, the pro-Trump herd, the liberal herd, the conservative herd, the CNBC herd, the mainstream financial services industry herd, the Armstrong herd, the gold bug herd… and there are all those ideologies in play.  But robotic thinking, unless it is in service to profitable trades like this one on an excellent company providing automation (ref. recent Fanuc NFTRH+ highlight), does not pay (disclaimer: I’ve sold and taken the profit).

So stop right there!  These are the financial markets, and if you have not checked your deepest held beliefs, your virtue, your bigotry and in general, your bias at the door you are going to lose.

There is a plan in play, which NFTRH has been tracking for many months, since we abandoned the bearish topping patterns (that weren’t) in US markets during the depths of the Brexit hysteria and the subsequent sentiment thrust, which undid the market’s bearish technical status.  The plan has been ‘SPX bullish’ based on the bullish moving average (up) signal on this weekly chart from the better part of a year ago…

spx weekly chart
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T/A and Sentiment in Crude Oil

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It seems that I don’t post very much on oil (or Natural Gas, for that matter).  These are covered each weekend in NFTRH; but yes it’s true, I give oil and energy short shrift in public posting.  Probably because I have other higher priority interests right now.

But a subscriber asked about shorting oil in light of the fading efficacy of the OPEC deal, Elliott Wave’s (I assume he means EWI) apparent target of $56 with a crash due thereafter, and Sentimentrader’s high risk sentiment reading.  So let’s look into it.

WTI Crude Oil is bullish above key support by daily chart.

wtic daily

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