Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

ES Quantitative Analysis

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Ultra brief post today.

Market is overbought.

Odds to go SHORT at 1802.75 are 92.73%.

Can the market go higher? Yes, it can, and actually in the last few days we had suggested that, when the market was down, and that was the moment to buy, not now.

Now is time to sell.

Place your SHORT bets and have a Stop Loss.

Here below is a CCOC table showing you how increasingly rare are a series of consecutive DAILY up closes beyond 6 times (today would be the 6th day up in a row).

Capture

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ES Quantitative Analysis

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Before beginning the analysis I just wanted to say I have been deeply touched by BDI’s post. I am relatively new to the forum, having been away from SOH since 2009, I do not know any of today’s forum participants and writers. I just had my very first brief, comments/jokes exchange with BDI in the forum two days ago, I am shocked to hear about his health issues and I wish him all the best. Posting market analysis in this moment, on this forum, feels a bit awkward… but anyway, here we go:

Last week, on Monday, we suggested that the ES was probably bottoming, because the WEEKLY and DAILY odds were quite good.

The trade at 1757.75 was trashed by the ensuing correction, however the odds just got better from there. (more…)

ES Quantitative Analysis

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All right, let’s pick up the wreckage from yesterday’s trading day and let’s try to make a bit of order.

As you know yesterday we theorized that the market was bottoming in the blue-circled area in the chart below, the odds were good, however the market went lower. From a probabilistic point of view the odds just got better for a LONG trade, both DAILY and WEEKLY. The more the market stretches to extreme limits, the higher the chances of a sudden sling back. (more…)