Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

E-mini S&P500 Market Analysis – December 11, 2014

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TO GO LONG

CCOC – Consecutive Closes Odds Calculator (TIME EXTENSION ANALYSIS)

Yesterday the market closed down again and made a lower low, but futures started to rise overnight, so it’s possible to have a rebound today. As you can see in the TIME EXTENSION ANALYSIS below, the DAILY time period shows that after 3 days down in a row the market closes the next day up in 87.67% of the times. This means in the largest majority of the cases the market does not go down more than 3 days in a row. Does that mean it cannot go down another day? Obviously not, it can go down 4, 5 or more days in a row, but these events (on average) are quite rare. Statistical research can show what is most possible but the exact prediction of the future will always escape us. We use our research to make bets on what it is most likely to happen (although it may not always happen). (more…)

ES Quantitative Analysis

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The last weekend the geopolitical instability generated by the Crimean/Ukrainian crisis affected the markets at the Open. From a human point of view, we hope that their situation evolves through peaceful steps with no more blood spilled.

However, if we are invested in the markets, we have to evaluate the implications of what happens there because it may hurt our investments. (more…)

ES Quantitative Analysis

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The ES in the last few days did not really go anywhere, and actually yesterday it closed (slightly) down. It is obviously unknown where it will go today, up or down, but should it continue to go down, it may reach somewhere between 1875 and the 1850 price area:Capture

The 1850~ price area is interesting because it offers good odds to go LONG, DAILY and WEEKLY (the MONTHLY odds around 1850 remain not good, so we cannot bet on a long-term MONTHLY reversal LONG, the price should go much lower for that, i.e. <=1740.75):

ES LONG

 

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