Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The ECAT Revolution

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Roughly one year and a half ago we posted here on Slope of Hope a reference to a new source of cheap energy that was being tested and developed, the so-called “energy catalyzer” (ECAT) by Andrea Rossi (now acquired by Industrial Heat).

There has been a lot of rumors and developments in this field since, then, but one thing is interesting and we are going to point it out now.

On October 8, 2014 a group of scientists published a paper where they report the results of a 32-days test of the ECAT reactor by Andrea Rossi. (more…)

End of the Year Analysis E-mini S&P500 (ES)

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Chart Analysis

As you probably already know, we believe that charts (and all Technical Analysis) have zero predictive value, because charts are just showing past data and unless this data is used as a statistical predictor, the act of projecting all sort of visual fantasies (patterns, trends, etc.) or our bias, onto a chart, it’s just an exercise in self-delusion.

However, from time to time we like to throw in a chart or two to help the reader visualize where our levels are in comparison to the market current price, or to visualize the recent market action in relation to our levels. As this year 2014 is closing, we’d like to look at a SPX chart of the last 50 years (below). (more…)

Trading the News

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After the seemingly unstoppable Russian Ruble + Oil price collapse, on Wednesday the market actually managed to close higher.

Yesterday we were just writing in our E-mini daily analysis that once the market reaches very oversold levels the bounce is always inevitable and that one should be careful when listening to the news: the falling oil prices and the Russian Ruble collapse were everywhere on the headlines, but you cannot know when the market will turn using the news. We have recently posted a humorous YouTube video on why you should avoid “Trading the News”.

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Can a Portfolio Truly Be Well-Diversified?

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Although we often hear (or read) the words “diversified” and “portfolio” together, we should question if it is really true that an investment portfolio can really be well diversified.

To speak about diversification, we first need to speak about “correlation”. When it comes to correlation, our creed can be summed up in a statement once made by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates:

“People think that a thing called correlation exists. That’s wrong. What is really happening is that each market is behaving logically based on its own determinants, and as the nature of those determinants changes, what we call correlation changes”. (Jack D. Schwager, “Hedge Fund Market Wizards, How Winning Traders Win”, Wiley 2012) (more…)