Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A New Normal on Trade?

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In my last post on Thursday 24th July I was talking about the inflection point forming here on equities and the two important possible triggers this week. The first of those was the trade deal being negotiated with the EU and that seems to have been agreed over the weekend, at a general level of 15%. This follows a similar agreement with Japan and means that trade deals in that kind of area have been agreed now with most of the largest US trading partners except China, Canada and Mexico, currently at higher levels.

This could be establishing a new normal on trade so I wanted to take a moment to review where this may be leaving us.

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An Inflection Point Forms

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In my last post on 16th July I was looking at a significant high that may be forming here on equities. There was some unfinished business that I was looking to finish on the upside and one of those was a high retest on DIA which we saw yesterday and there is now a daily RSI 14 sell signal brewing on DIA to go with the daily sell signals already fixed on SPX, QQQ and IWM.

I went through a more thorough list of the unfinished business both finished and remaining on my The Bigger Picture video yesterday night but in brief I was looking on my premarket videos over the last few days for high retests on DIA and Nikkei, which we saw yesterday, a full all time high retest on INDU, not quite seen yesterday but close, and high retests on DAX and ESTX50, both of which have formed bull flags which have broken up but not yet made target.

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The IHS on Solana Breaks Up

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Back in my post on 11th April I called the likely start of a strong rally which we then saw.

Back in my post on 12th May I called for new all time highs on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and laid out possible IHS scenarios on both Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), looking for ideal right shoulder lows on Solana in the 125.43 area and on Ethereum in the 2074.27 area. That hasn’t gone quite as I drew then but essentially both are still running that scenario.

Back in my post on 23rd June I called the likely lows on those right shoulders made on Solana at 126.09 and on Ethereum at 2113.65, and was looking for that IHS scenario on both to start to play out.

In my last post on 18th July I was looking at the IHS that had since broken up on Ethereum and the progress made towards the IHS neckline on Solana.

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Four Calls and a Question

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Back in my post on 11th April I called the likely start of a strong rally which we then saw of course.

Back in my post on 12th May I called for new all time highs on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and laid out possible IHS scenarios on both Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), looking for ideal right shoulder lows on Solana in the 125.43 area and on Ethereum in the 2074.27 area. That hasn’t gone quite as I drew then but essentially both are still running that scenario.

In my last post on 23rd Jun I called the likely lows on those right shoulders made on Solana at 126.09 and on Ethereum at 2113.65, and was looking for that IHS scenario on both to start to play out.

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Tariffs and TACOs

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Back on Tuesday 3rd June I laid out a possible bullish scenario in which I was looking for retests of the all time highs on SPX and NDX, with follow-on targets if both ran higher, a retest of the all time high on INDU, and a possible longer shot retest of the all time high on IWM based on a large IHS. Since then we have seen all three of those new all time highs on SPX, NDX and INDU, and the IHS on IWM has broken up hard and made it slightly less than halfway to the target at a retest of that all time high.

What we haven’t seen yet is the further extension to the possible trendline targets that I was looking at on SPX into the 6450-6500 area, or on NDX into the 24000-24500 area, or the new all time high on IWM of course, but I think this rally is likely now very close to at minimum to a steep retracement and may currently be making the highest highs that we will see in 2025.

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