Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Hard Fail or High Retests

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In my post on the morning of Wednesday 30th July I was looking at the pattern setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA and saying that these delivered a very nice setup for at least a short time high forming there.

In my post on the morning of Friday 1st August I was looking at the first real signs of weakness on the US equity indices since the April low after the strong breaks of the daily middle bands on DIA and IWM on Thursday, and saying that confirmation was needed with further breaks of the daily middle bands on SPX and QQQ.

In my post on Sunday 3rd August I was looking at the strong breaks of the daily middle bands on SPX and QQQ on Friday and the closes well below the 3sd daily lower bands on DIA and IWM. I proposed a rally early this week to backtest the daily middle bands on SPX and QQQ while setting up high quality H&S right shoulders on both.

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Looking at this Crypto Retracement

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Back in my post on 11th April I called the likely start of a strong rally which we then saw.

Back in my post on 12th May I called for new all time highs on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and laid out possible IHS scenarios on both Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), looking for ideal right shoulder lows on Solana in the 125.43 area and on Ethereum in the 2074.27 area. That hasn’t gone quite as I drew then but essentially both are still running that scenario.

Back in my post on 23rd June I called the likely lows on those right shoulders made on Solana at 126.09 and on Ethereum at 2113.65, and was looking for that IHS scenario on both to start to play out.

Back in my post on 18th July I was looking at the IHS that had since broken up on Ethereum and the progress made towards the IHS neckline on Solana.

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A Modest Proposal for Next Week

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In my post on the morning of Wednesday 30th July I was looking at the pattern setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA and saying that these delivered a very nice setup for at least a short time high forming there.

In my post on the morning of Friday 1st August I was looking at the first real signs of weakness on the US equity indices since the April low after the strong breaks of the daily middle bands on DIA and IWM on Thursday, and saying that confirmation was needed with further breaks of the daily middle bands on SPX and QQQ.

We saw those further breaks on Friday so it is likely that the first significant retracement on US indices since the April low are now in progress. So what next?

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A Battle of the Bands

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NOTE: The charts below are all showing the new monthly pivots.

In my post on Wednesday morning I was looking at the pattern setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA and saying that these delivered a very nice setup for at least a short time high forming here. Yesterday we saw the first real signs of weakness since the early April low.

I’ve looked in many previous posts at the importance of daily middle band support or resistance in strong trends and I looked at that in this uptrend a few weeks ago. Until yesterday there had been no meaningful closing breaks of the daily middle band support on SPX, QQQ, DIA or IWM since these indices broke back above those in late April. That changed with very strong closing breaks below the daily middle bands on DIA and IWM yesterday.

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So Here We Are Again

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Every so often I talk about the way chart patterns form and how they can evolve, and I have some very good illustrations of what I mean by that to show you today.

When rising wedges form in a trend and break down, sometimes they are just expanding as they rise and, when we saw breaks down the initial rising wedges from the April lows on SPX and QQQ a few weeks ago, I was talking about how if further levels above were reached then the wedges were just expanding and I would redraw the support trendlines as unbroken. That would create a new inflection point as those new patterns broke down.

What I am looking for in these cases are high quality resistance trendlines to form, either extensions of the initial wedge resistance trendlines or new trendlines, and I have three very high quality examples of the latter to show you today.

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