springheel_jack – Page 118 – Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The 5dma Three Day Rule – Day Three

By springheel_jack - 8 years ago (24, Apr 2017 9:25:11 AM)

ES/SPX found support where expected on Friday and reversed back up towards triangle resistance as expected, and then gapped over that at the Sunday globex open and the SPX RTH open, which was not expected. The triangle may be breaking up with a target at the retest of the all time high, and the opening gap up from 2355.84 is a candidate breakaway gap into that retest. There is a possible high here, but bears need to break down hard and fill that breakaway gap, ideally today, at latest tomorrow. Otherwise SPX likely retests the all time high. The 5dma is currently at 2351 and is likely out of reach for a close below absent a serious news bomb today. SPX daily 5dma chart:

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Back On The 5dma Three Day Rule

By springheel_jack - 8 years ago (21, Apr 2017 11:04:15 AM)

The decline from 2378.36 to 2328.95 wasn’t big, but it was over 2%, if only just at 2.08%. That means that with the daily close back over the 5dma yesterday SPX is back on the 5dma Three Day Rule, which states that on a daily close back (more than 2 handles) below the 5dma on either of the two trading days after the break back above, the last swing low below the 5dma (at 2328.95) should be retested before the last swing high above the 5dma (at 2378.95) is retested. This is a very strong statistic, though in this case the preceding move obviously wasn’t large. The 5dma is currently at 2347 and may close several handles away from that number depending on what happens before the close. SPX daily 5dma chart:

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Triangle Support, Maybe

By springheel_jack - 8 years ago (20, Apr 2017 8:54:18 AM)

I had a very busy day yesterday and didn’t manage to get a post out. Hopefully some of you caught my premarket tweet which captured the day nicely:

So what about those lower lows, which we haven’t seen yet? We the pattern setup is clear enough, with a small rising wedge that formed from the 2328.95 low and has broken down with a minimum target at a retest of 2328.95. To get there however the possible triangle support would have to break, and that’s at 2331 and hasn’t broken yet. While that triangle support holds SPX may still be returning to triangle resistance, currently in the 2371-3 area. On a break below that triangle support the downside opens up, and SPX can go considerably lower.

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Coming Off The Lows

By springheel_jack - 8 years ago (18, Apr 2017 9:27:49 AM)

A decent rally yesterday that took SPX back into a retest of the 50 hour MA as resistance. That’s currently at 2349/50 and supported by the daily middle band at 2352 and the 50dma at 2354. The current SPX low is at a possible triangle support trendline and if that resistance zone can be broken then declining resistance from the high and possible triangle resistance is currently in the 2372-4 area.

SPX 60min chart:

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Holiday Tape So Far

By springheel_jack - 8 years ago (13, Apr 2017 8:52:13 AM)

Lower lows on ES and NQ in globex overnight and that was bearish, kinda, or at least it would have been if the lows hadn’t been marginal on positive RSI divergence that has since delivered fixed buy signals on NQ and TF, and setting up double bottoms that have now broken up on ES, NQ and TF. The breaks are marginal on ES and TF so far with NQ almost at target, and if bears are going to turn this today then it should be here at the test of the 2350 SPX area. A hard reversal here would looks for further lower lows, but a sustained break up would likely deliver the day to the bulls. All the targets and setups are marked on the charts below.

SPX 60min chart:

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