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I’ve been looking at the overall bull flag setup on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) for months now, and that has finally broken up and almost delivered a full retest of the all time high at 73,802.641 yesterday, though it fell just short.
My lean is that Bitcoin makes a new all time high soon and continues higher, but there is an alternative scenario, and we could see a hard reversal here instead.
(more…)Equity indices have been chopping around in recent days, and the action seems to be getting less interesting by the day. Overall this looks like a bullish consolidation, with SPY, QQQ holding above their daily middle bands, IWM trying to break back over the daily middle band, and only DIA holding below the middle band there.
There is a lot of talk about a possible larger decline brewing, and with Vix in the 18 area, and a lot of uncertainty about the presidential election, currently too close to call, as well as a couple of ongoing wars, there is certainly enough potential news around that could help a decent retracement along.
The problem is that the setup for a large decline here is currently thin, but it could improve. The current move looks like a bullish consolidation but if that delivers and we see another move up, there are some significant levels that could be hit to improve a topping setup here. In part because there really isn’t much going on today on the equity markets, I’m going to have a quick look at that today.
(more…)After my post on Thursday there was a modest retracement on Crypto but there was no technical damage on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). That held the daily middle band perfectly on the last backtest and the obvious next target is a retest of the last high at 69.5k.
If Bitcoin continues higher from there, the larger bull flag that has broken up has a target at a retest of the all time high at 73,802.641.
(more…)I did a post a month ago looking at the triangles on Oil & Natural Gas. I’ve been following both since, amid the intermittent turbulence in the Middle East, and the rhyming triangles scenario I laid out in the post likely failed on Friday on natural gas. I’ll cover that further down but first I’ll review where we are up to on oil.
On the WTIC chart the triangle that broke down had a target at a retest of the May 2023 low at 63.57, and that remains the case. Invalidation of that target would be at a break back over triangle resistance, currently in the 81.2 area.
(more…)I’ve been writing and talking over the last few months about the overall likely bull flag setups on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD), and the bull flag resistance on Bitcoin was briefly broken a few days ago before the current modest retracement.
I was writing on Wednesday about the small H&S on Bitcoin, which didn’t make target and then failed yesterday on a break over the right shoulder high at 67.8k. That fail has a target at a retest of the October high at 69.5k.
(more…)
