Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Three Rising Wedges Update

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I’ve started to change on shorter term charts to using SPY rather than SPX, QQQ rather than NDX and DIA rather than Dow as I’ve got the impression that would be more useful for most people. Feedback very welcome if anyone has a view on this.

I was saying on Thursday last week that I wasn’t expecting to see anything particularly impressive on the downside, but there were three decent rising wedges from the August lows on SPX, NDX and Dow that I’ve been watching, and a couple of short term double tops that might play out. That’s still mostly the case so I thought I’d do a quick update post on that today.

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Proof Of Life

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I was looking at this rising wedge on SPX posted on twitter earlier this week by someone with the comment that the break above this week is a bearish overthrow that would likely precede a break down from the wedge and then a likely 38.2% to 61.8% retracement of the wedge. Obviously I’ve been posting that wedge and looking at it every day in my premarket videos for weeks, and it is a very decent quality pattern, but I’m doubtful.

If we were going to see that retracement happen, then the obvious time to do that would have been over the last four weeks or so, in the obvious bearish window into late October. That didn’t happen, so unless we see some evidence that the bears are still in the game, I’m going to remain doubtful.

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Hard Break Up On Crypto

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Yesterday afternoon I sent a quick update post to all the subscribers at my Crypto SubStack to warn them that there was now a high quality bull flag setup on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) that on a break up would look for a target at a retest of the September high at 66.5k. I also noted that the hourly RSI 14 sell signal that had formed and fixed as Bitcoin was hitting flag resistance had reached the possible near miss target. I was thinking of circulating this more widely but SubStack was having issues yesterday afternoon, so I thought I’d just cover this in a post today.

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Bitcoin Made Target And Reversed Hard

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In my last post on Crypto I was looking at the overall setup on Crypto and the short term H&S patterns on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD). Those short term setups are played out now (more details below) and we have been seeing strong rallies across the board which could be the start of a larger break up.

This is a match with what I am seeing on equities, which may be starting a general break up here though, as with Crypto, more needs to be done to the upside to deliver that break up.

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Double (Top) Or Nothing

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In my last two posts I’ve been talking about the possible short term topping setup here on equity indices in the context of the historically reliable daily sell signals fixed but not yet made target still on SPX and Dow.

In the first of those posts I was talking about the possible H&S patterns that might form, noting that if they failed to complete and break down then the prior highs would likely retest, giving a second shot at a high setups with double tops.

In my last post I was looking at the decent quality H&S patterns that had then formed on SPX, NDX and Dow, noting that to break down below the pattern necklines, all three would need to break back below their daily middle bands. If that didn’t happen I was saying in the premarket video that day that we would likely see high retests on at least SPX and NDX.

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