Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Possible Path For Crypto into October

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I’ve been having a good look at the longer term correlation between Crypto & equity indices and it is a strong one that has been impressively consistent over the last 8 years. The chart below just covers the last five years of SPX vs BTUSD (Bitcoin) but you can see that the upswings and downswings tend to be correlated, and going back to 2016 the big highs on both are decently matched, with a strong tendency for Crypto to turn down before equities do.

I was asked a couple of weeks ago whether this might be happening again, with Crypto having topped a few months ago and SPX, NDX and Dow all looking as though a significant high might be close. I’ve looked at that and would say that it would be more typical for the two highs to be within a month of each other, though there is a possibly comparable period as BTCUSD was forming a bull flag for ten months or so in 2019-20 with the C wave down during the 2020 COVID crash.

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Weighing The Options For Equities

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I posted the SPXADP chart a few days ago, and since then it has punched above the 30 level on the chart. What does that mean? Well about 50% of the time that means that a short term high is very close, sometimes for a serious high, but more often just a retracement that would look for close to or at the -25 level on the chart. The rest of the time would be continuation, sometimes into a short term high not long after, but often just a move higher.

A double punch above the 30 level, as we may see that here, would strongly favor retracement or at least a period of consolidation in the weeks afterwards.

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Break Up On Crypto

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All the new weekly pivots are on the daily charts posted below.

The last few days I have been watching the resistance at the daily middle band on all three of BTCUSD (Bitcoin), ETHUSD (Ethereum) and SOLUSD (Solana). An H&S pattern had formed and broken down on Solana, and another was still forming on Ethereum. If resistance at those daily middle band held then the setup was likely to break down further, into targets of 119 on Solana and 2,250 on Ethereum. On a sustained break up over those daily middle bands, and the failure of the H&S pattern on Solana on a break back up over the H&S right shoulder high at 152.17.

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Everything’s Eventual

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Finally some signs of a genuine, can be seen with the naked eye, retracement on equity indices today. I was talking in this morning’s premarket video about the possibility of setting up some decent quality hourly RSI 14 sell signals on SPX and NDX for the first time since the all time highs were made and they set up and fixed this morning into the decline that we have been watching today.

I have been muttering that without retracements there are no chart patterns, and this delivers a shot at finally seeing some of those form, and also a shot at setting up decent possible negative divergences on the daily RSI 14 or RSI 5 charts, again for the first time since the all time highs were made.

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Crypto Still In The Inflection Point

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Last week I was writing about the inflection point that Crypto had reached short term, and they are still in that same inflection point, with a decision really needed in the next day or two if Crypto are going down any further, so a couple of days more uncertainty will considerably increase the odds of a break up.

The overhead resistance is, mostly, at the daily middle bands. I say mostly because BTCUSD (Bitcoin) has already broken back above it on Monday and tested the 50dma, though it failed there and closed back below the daily middle band yesterday and so failed to confirm Monday’s break above.

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