Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Equities In the Big Inflection Point

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In my post last week I was looking at the big inflection point here on equity indices, and they are still in that inflection point, though there have been some developments since which I’ll go through today.

I use the $SPXADP daily chart as one rough and ready guide to where there might be a retracement or consolidation coming on SPX, and that hit the key upside level at 30 on Friday. There are 11 previous hits of 30 on the chart below (red dotted vertical trendlines), and all of them signaled either a retracement starting within a couple of days (seven instances) and/or a sideways consolidation lasting at least two or three weeks, so it is likely that we will be looking at that again here.

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Nice Looking Short Setup On Crypto

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There is a decent correlation between the trends on equity indices and Crypto, as I’ve mentioned before, and we are seeing a small but significant looking inflection point on both of them today that I was looking at in my premarket video on Crypto today.

The chart below shows one of my SPX daily charts with SOLUSD in the background. You can see the possible small double top setup on SPX here, and I have a similar setup on SOLUSD (Solana) and BTCUSD (Bitcoin), both of which I will be showing further below. The correlation isn’t perfect, but it is strong.

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In The Big Inflection Point on Crypto

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A week ago I led with a chart looking at the strong correlation between SPX and BTCUSD (Bitcoin). I was talking about the big inflection point likely coming up on SPX, and SPX is in that inflection point now, at a stage where it could very much break either way, though the Fed gave bulls a big boost yesterday. Whichever way SPX breaks here, Crypto will likely follow to a significant degree.

On the Bitcoin daily chart, the daily middle band was backtested and held as support. BTCUSD has also broken back over the 50dma, and is close to a test of the 200dma currently at 63985. Bitcoin is looking a bit stretched at the moment, over the daily upper band currently at 62775, but still well short of the daily 3sd upper band currently at 65078.

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A Big Decision To Make Here

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This is my first post on equities this month. My apologies for that. I’ve been getting my boys back to university. They have now both gone and summer has officially ended in my house.

In my last post I was looking at the bearish track record for Septembers in presidential election years, and we saw a sharp decline shortly after at the start of September.

I have still been doing my premarket videos every day as normal at my chartingthemarkets substack and, after that low was made I said there was a strong case for a retest of the all time highs on SPX and Dow next, at which point there would be a lovely topping setup on both, and a fail area inflection point that could deliver a big decline from there into October. Both of those all time highs have now been retested, and that really nice topping setup has formed. We are waiting for the decision on whether this will now break down within the setup or break up out of it.

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Possible Path For Crypto into October

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I’ve been having a good look at the longer term correlation between Crypto & equity indices and it is a strong one that has been impressively consistent over the last 8 years. The chart below just covers the last five years of SPX vs BTUSD (Bitcoin) but you can see that the upswings and downswings tend to be correlated, and going back to 2016 the big highs on both are decently matched, with a strong tendency for Crypto to turn down before equities do.

I was asked a couple of weeks ago whether this might be happening again, with Crypto having topped a few months ago and SPX, NDX and Dow all looking as though a significant high might be close. I’ve looked at that and would say that it would be more typical for the two highs to be within a month of each other, though there is a possibly comparable period as BTCUSD was forming a bull flag for ten months or so in 2019-20 with the C wave down during the 2020 COVID crash.

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