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There have been a couple of very decent looking short setups here on SPX and NDX this week, and both times the markets just ripped up through them. The bear flags formed and broke up, the SPX, NDX and INDU broke back up over their daily middle bands and are now testing their monthly pivots, while multiple hourly sell signals that had fixed at these obvious resistance levels failed, including two each on ES and NQ. Altogether it was an ugly week for the bears.
In the short term there are very clear bull and bear scenarios here on Crypto, clearest on SOLUSD (Solana), though on the bigger picture these are still likely bull flags forming.
In terms of that larger picture, resistance is still at the daily middle bands, and on BTCUSD (Bitcoin) that is currently in the 61,246 area. A sustained break above that likely signals that the move to retest the all time high at 73.8k is in progress.
BTCUSD daily chart:
A decent looking low on crypto was made a few days ago. On the bigger picture these are likely bull flags forming on BTCUSD (Bitcoin), and SOLUSD (Solana), and probably on ETHUSD (Ethereum) as well, though the setup is muddier there. All three are still below their daily middle bands though and, while that remains the case, we could still see lower lows before they likely go higher.
SOLUSD daily chart:
On Thursday last week I wrote a post looking at the possible four larger bear flags that could form on SPX, NDX, Dow & IWM after the sharp decline on Wednesday afternoon. Of those four, there are three decent looking larger bear flags that have since formed, and this morning we are watching the inflection point where these flags may break down into retests of the retracement lows made on Monday last week.
On SPX the obvious larger flag resistance trendline I drew on Thursday was hit perfectly on Friday and overthrown slightly today.
(more…)My post yesterday was close to the rally high so far and all the bear flags I showed broke down shortly afterwards and continued down the rest of the day.
Now on a break down from a bear flag the target is the retest of the prior low, but there are other options, notably when the flag that has broke down is just the first leg of a larger bear flag that is still forming, so I’ll talk about that today.
On SPX there was a strong break of the bear flag yesterday, 5min RSI 14 buy signals fixed near the lows on all of SPX, NDX, IWM and Dow, and played out this morning. A weak 5min RSI 14 sell signal has now fixed on SPX and it may be that the indices will turn back down here into the retest of Monday’s lows.
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