Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Short Term High …. Perhaps More

By -

I posted the chart below on my personal twitter yesterday morning with the comment that a retracement was likely and that a possible rally high was being made.

I was looking at the perfect hit of the ideal possible rising wedge resistance trendline for this move and the very large amount of negative divergence on the hourly and 15 minute charts.

A higher high was then made that overthrew the wedge slightly and improved the hourly negative divergence further, and since then we have seen a modest retracement which looks likely to go further.

(more…)

One More High Needed……Probably

By -

Last Friday there was a clear break back below the 5dma, and that was a fix under the Three Day Rule. On this rule SPX should retest the last low at 3491.58 before any retest of the prior high at 3806.91. I haven’t counted but there have been nine previous fixes in 2022 and I’d be surprised if this rule hasn’t fixed well over 100 times since the start of 2007 and on the current rules for this, after a small tweak in 2019, there has not yet been a failure, although there have been two marginal higher lows when triangles were forming at the lows.

I have mentioned that there is no such thing as a perfect market stat, and that I would therefore expect to see a fail on this stat at some point, but there’s no particular reason to think that would be here. I have been asked this week what I would expect to see if it does fail here but, as that hasn’t happened before, I have no idea, though it would open the next possible resistance level in the 3900 area.

(more…)

No Such Thing As A Sure Thing

By -

On Friday morning I was writing that SPX went back onto my Three Day Rule on the break back over the 5dma at the close on Thursday night. Under that rule, if either of the next two closes delivers a clear break back below the 5dma, then the prior low, in this case 3491.58, will be retested before the prior high, in this case 3806.91. There was a clear close back below the 5dma on Friday, so that is a fix on the rule.

Now this is the most impressive performing market stat that I have ever seen anywhere about anything. There have been nine previous fixes so far in 2022, all of which made target and I’d estimate somewhere in the region of 100 – 200 fixes since the start of 2007, which is as far back as I looked when I first investigated this in 2011/2. With a minor rule fix in 2019 requiring a clear close below the 5dma for a fix, every one of those has made target barring a couple of very near misses when a triangle has been forming at the low.

(more…)

Still Testing The SPX 200 Week MA

By -

Apologies for this being the only post this week. I’m moving house in a few weeks and I’ve been really busy.

In my last post I was looking at the possible hard fail setup on SPX, NDX, IWM and Dow if the inverted H&S patterns that had broken up failed on moves back below the right shoulder lows on those patterns. On that fail there would be targets back at the retests of the 2022 lows and the last of those four low retest targets were hit at the low yesterday.

SPX tested the 200 week moving average for the third time this week and did an impressive pinocchio below it yesterday morning, though SPX recovered back over it quickly. For what it’s worth that was the largest pinocchio down through it since the low in 2009, excluding of course the hard break below it in 2020.

(more…)