There’s been quite a bit of speculation about a possible bear market low having just been made at the last low, and that is technically possible, though I think rather unlikely. More likely is the possibility that SPX is returning to retest the all time highs to make a second high on a huge double top pattern looking for a retest of the 2020 lows, but even that is doubtful in my view. I think that if the high had been going to get a retest then the rally that ended at 4326.28 would likely have continue higher into that then.
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Holding The SPX 200 Week MA
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I was looking at the possibility on Friday of a decent rally from strong support in the 3600 SPX area, and that rally may well have started. On the SPX daily chart both RSI 14 and RSI 5 buy signals have fixed yesterday and there is a clear bottoming pattern here that could take SPX back up into the 3885 area on a sustained break back up over 3736.
(more…)Testing The 2022 Low
Last week I was looking for a new low on SPX for 2022 and we’ve seen that week. I was also wondering about a possible rally after that and SPX has been setting up nicely for that rally, even with news this week that has mainly been grim. Nonetheless it is a decent looking setup for a rally here, so I’ll have a look both at that and the obvious next target below in the event that this rally setup fails.
On the rally prospects side the new low and retest of that low has created a very decent quality potential double bottom setup that using the lows at the time of writing would look for the 3850 area on a sustained break over 3736.74. The retest has also set up positive divergence on the daily RSI 14 and RSI 5. Given that there is similar divergence on NDX and still an open hourly RSI 14 buy signal fixed, that is a lot of potential and actual support for a rally here.
(more…)Approaching The Low Retest
I was saying in my premarket video on Monday morning that ideally what we would see this week is a rally on Mon/Tues, and then another leg down on Wednesday through Monday next week in line with the very bearish historical stats for these four days. So far that has delivered well, with FOMC on Wednesday delivering the next leg down I was looking for. If you’d like to hear that premarket video every morning that is included in our Daily Update Service and you can get a 30 day free trial here.
(more…)The Downside Is Strong In This One
I was saying in my post on Monday that a fail at the test of the daily middle band generally happens in one of two ways. The first way is the usual test and fail, and the second is a break above that is rejected the next day. Obviously SPX took the second option and delivered a memorable rejection candle. That was bearish with an obvious minimum target at a retest of the daily lower band, which closed yesterday at 3823. I’m expecting that target to be reached, and likely lower. A retest in the next few weeks of the 2022 low at 3636.87 is now firmly on the table as my primary scenario.
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