Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Testing The 2022 Low

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Last week I was looking for a new low on SPX for 2022 and we’ve seen that week. I was also wondering about a possible rally after that and SPX has been setting up nicely for that rally, even with news this week that has mainly been grim. Nonetheless it is a decent looking setup for a rally here, so I’ll have a look both at that and the obvious next target below in the event that this rally setup fails.

On the rally prospects side the new low and retest of that low has created a very decent quality potential double bottom setup that using the lows at the time of writing would look for the 3850 area on a sustained break over 3736.74. The retest has also set up positive divergence on the daily RSI 14 and RSI 5. Given that there is similar divergence on NDX and still an open hourly RSI 14 buy signal fixed, that is a lot of potential and actual support for a rally here.

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Approaching The Low Retest

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I was saying in my premarket video on Monday morning that ideally what we would see this week is a rally on Mon/Tues, and then another leg down on Wednesday through Monday next week in line with the very bearish historical stats for these four days. So far that has delivered well, with FOMC on Wednesday delivering the next leg down I was looking for. If you’d like to hear that premarket video every morning that is included in our Daily Update Service and you can get a 30 day free trial here.

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The Downside Is Strong In This One

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I was saying in my post on Monday that a fail at the test of the daily middle band generally happens in one of two ways. The first way is the usual test and fail, and the second is a break above that is rejected the next day. Obviously SPX took the second option and delivered a memorable rejection candle. That was bearish with an obvious minimum target at a retest of the daily lower band, which closed yesterday at 3823. I’m expecting that target to be reached, and likely lower. A retest in the next few weeks of the 2022 low at 3636.87 is now firmly on the table as my primary scenario.

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Halfway Between the Gutter & Stars

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SPX rallied further on Friday to test the monthly pivot at 4078, and has been trading above it overnight. A string of decent quality double bottoms have broken up on the equity indices and if we are to see further upside then the next big resistance on SPX is at the daily middle band which closed on Friday in the 4108 area. This brings us to a big inflection point that should determine direction for the next few weeks.

On the bear side the daily middle band should hold as resistance. That can either happen with a fail directly at or under the daily middle band, or with a break above it that fails to follow through to convert it back to support. That would normally be delivered with a clear break above it that then rejects back below it the following day.

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Back On The Three Day Rule

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I was saying on Wednesday morning that the most important short term resistance was the 5dma, and we saw a break back over the 5dma at the close on Wednesday, so that put SPX back on the Three Day Rule. That means that in the event of a clear visual break (3 to 5 handles) back below the 5dma on either of the next two trading days, in this case yesterday or today, then SPX should retest the last low at 3886.75 before any retest of the prior high at 4325.28.

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