Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Retesting The Upper Band

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This is likely my only post this week, as I was wiped out by food poisoning on Sunday night, and while I’m feeling much recovered, my total food consumption so far this week is one hard boiled egg, a tortilla wrap, some houmous to go with the wrap and half a cookie, which is slim pickings. I’m cautiously considering possible menu items for today.

On to the markets though, and the H&S setup I was looking at yesterday morning in my premarket video at theartofchart.net I posted on my twitter failed and on the break over the right shoulder retested the rally high as expected (after the fail) and went a bit higher. So where does that leave SPX now?

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Testing 4000

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Last weekend I was looking at the higher probability bear flag formation options on SPX and was looking at the resistance trendline on the chart below as the highest quality bear flag resistance trendline. That’s in the 4050 area now, having eliminating the triangle option in the move up this week, and SPX successfully negotiated the very bearish historical stats yesterday to reach the 4000 area this morning.

SPX 15min chart:

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A Short But Winding Road

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In my last post I was talking about the possibility of a triangle forming on SPX. That triangle arguably then finished wave D at the low that day and then broke down the next. Had that been a bear flag triangle then the target would then have been a retest of the 2022 low, but it seems likely from the action since then that if there is a bear flag forming here short term, which seems likely, then it is still forming.

I’ve drawn in some trendline options on the SPX chart below for a possible larger bear flag triangle or rising megaphone. The megaphone resistance trendline is in the 4025 area is the highest obvious option.

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In Between Days

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SPX is retracing and is likely to open today below the monthly pivot at 3867 and the weekly pivot at 3853. That opens a possible backtest of the daily middle band, currently in the 3812 area, and a close below and conversion of that to resistance would open a possible 2022 low retest.

Am I expecting to see that directly from here? No, but it is a possibility.

SPX daily BBs chart:

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The Evolving Markets

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SPX didn’t retest the retracement low on Tuesday and that blew the best chance to do that in the next few days. The stats for today through Tuesday lean modestly bullish, and fairly strongly bullish on Wednesday and Thursday. This doesn’t mean that SPX has to close higher on all or indeed any of those days, but it does mean that the bulls have the wind at their backs on those days rather than trying to advance against it. The next day with a significantly bearish lean is July opex on Friday 15th July.

In the short term SPX gapped over the daily middle band yesterday and that was the first serious short term resistance. If we are to see a retest of the retracement low in the next few days, which is still possible, then the clearest indication for that would be a daily rejection candle today that rolled back yesterday’s candle entirely and delivered a clear close back below the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 3630.

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