Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Still Testing The SPX 200 Week MA

By -

Apologies for this being the only post this week. I’m moving house in a few weeks and I’ve been really busy.

In my last post I was looking at the possible hard fail setup on SPX, NDX, IWM and Dow if the inverted H&S patterns that had broken up failed on moves back below the right shoulder lows on those patterns. On that fail there would be targets back at the retests of the 2022 lows and the last of those four low retest targets were hit at the low yesterday.

SPX tested the 200 week moving average for the third time this week and did an impressive pinocchio below it yesterday morning, though SPX recovered back over it quickly. For what it’s worth that was the largest pinocchio down through it since the low in 2009, excluding of course the hard break below it in 2020.

(more…)

The Ghosts Of Christmas Past

By -

There’s been quite a bit of speculation about a possible bear market low having just been made at the last low, and that is technically possible, though I think rather unlikely. More likely is the possibility that SPX is returning to retest the all time highs to make a second high on a huge double top pattern looking for a retest of the 2020 lows, but even that is doubtful in my view. I think that if the high had been going to get a retest then the rally that ended at 4326.28 would likely have continue higher into that then.

(more…)

Holding The SPX 200 Week MA

By -

As of last weekend our Follow The Leader service at theartofchart.net was up 159% year to date with 90% winners so far. This is an autotrading service in partnership with GFF Brokers, official broker for the World Cup Advisor Auto Trade programs.  This is included in our Daily Video Service and if you’re interested in that you can find out more about that here, and you can try a 30 day free trial at theartofchart.net here.

I was looking at the possibility on Friday of a decent rally from strong support in the 3600 SPX area, and that rally may well have started. On the SPX daily chart both RSI 14 and RSI 5 buy signals have fixed yesterday and there is a clear bottoming pattern here that could take SPX back up into the 3885 area on a sustained break back up over 3736.

(more…)

Testing The 2022 Low

By -

Last week I was looking for a new low on SPX for 2022 and we’ve seen that week. I was also wondering about a possible rally after that and SPX has been setting up nicely for that rally, even with news this week that has mainly been grim. Nonetheless it is a decent looking setup for a rally here, so I’ll have a look both at that and the obvious next target below in the event that this rally setup fails.

On the rally prospects side the new low and retest of that low has created a very decent quality potential double bottom setup that using the lows at the time of writing would look for the 3850 area on a sustained break over 3736.74. The retest has also set up positive divergence on the daily RSI 14 and RSI 5. Given that there is similar divergence on NDX and still an open hourly RSI 14 buy signal fixed, that is a lot of potential and actual support for a rally here.

(more…)

Approaching The Low Retest

By -

I was saying in my premarket video on Monday morning that ideally what we would see this week is a rally on Mon/Tues, and then another leg down on Wednesday through Monday next week in line with the very bearish historical stats for these four days. So far that has delivered well, with FOMC on Wednesday delivering the next leg down I was looking for. If you’d like to hear that premarket video every morning that is included in our Daily Update Service and you can get a 30 day free trial here.

(more…)