SPX has reached a peak of 9.57% over the 45dma on this run. That’s likely to be the highest reading as the 45dma is now rising significantly every day, and has risen 40 handles this week. We should now see a retracement that reaches at least close to the 45dma, now at 3971, and may go below it. Depending on the time taken to deliver that retracement I’d be leaning towards a target area 4000-50 as a very rough guide.
(more…)Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Air Getting Very Thin Here
I was talking on Friday about how every so often we see market moves that make no sense, but are technically sound, and go ahead and happen despite making no sense. I was calling these grey swans and as it happens there was a very good example of this that day.
On my daily 45dma chart at the intraday high SPX reached a level 9.1% above the 45dma, higher than both of the highs made after the 2020 low at 8.7% and 8.4%. That was something I didn’t expect to see, but here we are.
SPX daily 45dma chart:
Grey Swans
I wanted to take an opportunity to take stock of where this rally is in relation to the possible all time high retests that I was talking about in my post on 14th June just before the 2022 low was made. I have done three main posts looking at this and a possible news background that might help deliver those high retests from the decent looking bull flags that have formed in 2022 on all four of the main US indices that I watch from those all time highs
These are those three posts which are worth another look as there is more in them than I will be reviewing in this post.
Through A Glass Darkly – 14th Jun
Blood In The Streets – 17th Jun
The Evolving Markets – 8th Jul
(more…)Still In The Inflection Point
If you missed our free public Chart Chat at theartofchart.net on Sunday then you can see the recording here or on our monthly free webinars page here.
In that Chart Chat we were saying that a retest of the rally high was likely early this week, and we saw that yesterday. SPX has a daily RSI 5 sell signal brewing, a fixed hourly RSI 14 sell signal, and the trendline setup for a reversal here looks very nice indeed. The next step if we are going to see a reversal here would be a break of the short term rising support trendline now in the 4105 area, and ideally the formation of an H&S at the possible neckline in the 4080 area.
(more…)In The Inflection Point
In my last post on Tuesday I was talking about ideally seeing a higher high on this rally to set up divergence and we have since seen that on SPX, NDX and IWM. That has set possible daily RSI 5 and hourly RSI 14 sell signals brewing on SPX and brought SPX closer to the ideal IHS area at the June high at 4177.
The distance from the SPX 45dma reached a nosebleed level at 6.19% though that doesn’t mean as much after a strong bear move. Still a very good place to be looking for a retracement though.
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