Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Short But Winding Road

By -

In my last post I was talking about the possibility of a triangle forming on SPX. That triangle arguably then finished wave D at the low that day and then broke down the next. Had that been a bear flag triangle then the target would then have been a retest of the 2022 low, but it seems likely from the action since then that if there is a bear flag forming here short term, which seems likely, then it is still forming.

I’ve drawn in some trendline options on the SPX chart below for a possible larger bear flag triangle or rising megaphone. The megaphone resistance trendline is in the 4025 area is the highest obvious option.

(more…)

In Between Days

By -

SPX is retracing and is likely to open today below the monthly pivot at 3867 and the weekly pivot at 3853. That opens a possible backtest of the daily middle band, currently in the 3812 area, and a close below and conversion of that to resistance would open a possible 2022 low retest.

Am I expecting to see that directly from here? No, but it is a possibility.

SPX daily BBs chart:

(more…)

The Evolving Markets

By -

SPX didn’t retest the retracement low on Tuesday and that blew the best chance to do that in the next few days. The stats for today through Tuesday lean modestly bullish, and fairly strongly bullish on Wednesday and Thursday. This doesn’t mean that SPX has to close higher on all or indeed any of those days, but it does mean that the bulls have the wind at their backs on those days rather than trying to advance against it. The next day with a significantly bearish lean is July opex on Friday 15th July.

In the short term SPX gapped over the daily middle band yesterday and that was the first serious short term resistance. If we are to see a retest of the retracement low in the next few days, which is still possible, then the clearest indication for that would be a daily rejection candle today that rolled back yesterday’s candle entirely and delivered a clear close back below the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 3630.

(more…)

After The Holiday

By -

I hope everyone had a great Independence Day weekend. For some obscure historical reason that isn’t a public holiday over here in the UK, but as I work US hours I had a very pleasant long weekend.

I’m going to look at the short and longer term prospects for SPX here, and I’ll start with an important longer term chart, the SPX monthly chart where there has now been a monthly close below the key support & resistance trendline on SPX since the 2009 low.

That opens the possibility for further downside and we may well be seeing that either sooner or later.

(more…)

Back On The Three Day Rule Again

By -

Last week I was talking about a likely modest rally coming, which we have seen, and then a low retest, which we have not yet seen but I’m expecting to see this week.

After that I’m thinking we may well see a much larger rally on SPX, and one thing I was waiting to see before that rally was decent positive divergence on the weekly RSI 5, which we now have.

If we do see that larger rally, then I’d be looking for a test, and perhaps a break, of main downtrend resistance, which is at the weekly middle band, now at 4209.

(more…)