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In my last post I was looking for a retracement and looking at targets below for the likely backtest that was coming, and those initial targets have been hit, more or less. The main target was the mean reversion target at the 45dma, now at 4417, and the current low this week at 4450 isn’t quite a hit, but came close.
SPX daily vs 45dma chart:
I was looking at resistance at the weekly middle band in my post on Tuesday, and SPX has broken up through that convincingly, though SPX still needs to close the week significantly above the weekly middle band, currently at 4531 to fix that resistance break. If seen SPX will then need to close next week above the break to confirm it.
I was also saying that a break on SPX over the H&S right shoulder high at 4595.31 would fail the H&S and fix a target at a retest of the all time high at 4818.62, and that has now definitely broken, so that is a very significant bullish break.
(more…)My apologies for the long wait between posts. I went out with some friends for the first time in two years on the first weekend in March and caught COVID, which has taken a while to clear. That wasn’t too bad and I’m clear now though I’m still feeling low on energy. Hopefully that will pass soon too.
I did post one of my premarket videos at theartofchart.net on my personal twitter on 16th March looking at the very large amount of bullish pressure underneath the market and wondering whether we would see a strong rally and we have since seen that strong rally, which has taken SPX back to main resistance at the weekly middle band. So what now?
(more…)In my post a week ago I was saying that SPX was back on the Three Day Rule, and on the third day SPX closed clearly back below the 5dma, triggering the rule. That means there is a very high probability that the 4114.65 low will be retested in the near future.
SPX daily 5dma chart:
After the violent rally on Thursday and Friday next week the real question here is whether a significant low has been made. There are some signs that might be the case.
On the SPX daily chart the low saw a spike down through the 3sd lower band, generally a good indicator for at least a strong rally, there are possible weekly RSI 5 buy signals brewing on SPX and Dow, a decent looking falling wedge on Dow that looks like a bull flag. That amounts to a definite maybe, though even if the all time high on SPX is retested next, the odds favor at least some more downside afterwards, but I’ll be looking at that in my next post.
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