Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Looking At Support Levels

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This really is one of the most nicely formed trendline highs on SPX/ES here that I’ve seen in a while and, so far at least, trendline resistance is holding like a champ. As long as that remains the case we should either be starting the first swing down now or, if the weekly pivot on ES at 2879.50 can’t be broken and converted to resistance on this test, we would likely need one more high retest to complete a slightly larger double top than the one that has already formed and broken down on both SPX and ES.

The short term setup here is a double top that might be a Janus bull flag. That’s a pattern of mine and I haven’t yet found time to write a definition page with examples but the short version is that a double top has formed and broken down slightly. At this stage SPX either heads to the double top target, or rejects back into a full high retest. One of those two scenarios should be next. I talked about the setup here and support levels in my premarket video this morning.

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So Here We Are Again

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On Tuesday I was looking at the obvious resistance trendlines on SPX that might be hit this week in the 2885-2900 area and I’ve been watching those since. This morning they have been hit at 2891/2 with a possible hourly RSI 14 sell signal brewing, so this is an important inflection point and possible swing high area. I talked about that before the open this morning and this is the full version below of my premarket video also covering the usual wide array of future and forex instruments.

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Topping Options

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The short term resistance on the SPX 5dma and 50hma that held for much of last week eventually broke and delivered the high retest and marginal higher high that I was looking for in the event of that break. So what now?

Well I’m expecting this to be the second high of a double top or possibly making the head on an H&S. 15min sell signals have fixed on SPX and an hourly sell signal has fixed this morning on ES. This high could already be in, and the rising wedge on ES from the last low has now broken down, which is promising. A small double top has broken down slightly towards a possible H&S neckline in the 2854 area, and there is now a substantial double top in place which on a sustained break below 2789 would look for alternate targets in either the 2728 or 2706 area.

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Backtest Or Retest?

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The first move down on equities has delivered nicely, and at this point the time has come for the rally that is in progress at the moment. Now on the bigger picture this is an inflection point test of trend resistance, and the alternate inflection point outcomes are either a failure at resistance into another leg downwards, or a break and conversion of resistance back to support, opening another retest of the all time high.

On SPX resistance is at the weekly pivot at 2820, supported by the key short term trend support/resistance levels at the 5dma, currently at 2820 and the 50 hour MA, currently at 2825. We should either see failure in this area, or a break back up into the high retest. I discuss the options on this morning’s premarket video. Since then the 60min buy signals on ES, NQ and RTY have all either made target or the possible near miss target.

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So Here We Are Then

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Last Friday I was saying that my preferred scenario on SPX would deliver a marginal new rally high to make the second high of a double top to then take SPX back into the 2600-50 area. We have seen that marginal higher high, the middle of this cycle high window is today, and the stats for next week lean significantly bearish. If everything keeps going to plan then SPX is about to reverse down here and this high may be the 2019 high, though I’m still wondering about a possible ATH retest after the next big low window in June.

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