Stan and I did our end of year webinar yesterday looking at the outlook next year for equity markets including SPX, NDX, RUT, DAX & NIKK, also AMZN & AAPL, bonds, oil, gold, silver, gdx, us dollar, EURUSD, coffee, sugar, wheat, corn, bitcoin and a couple of other instruments we were asked about that I can’t recall offhand. It is well worth watching and the recording is posted here. Our annual holiday sale on annual memberships also ends on Wednesday 2nd January and if you’re interested, you can find the page for that here.
(more…)Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Looking Into 2019
At the weekend in Chart Chat I was talking about the 2300-50 support area on SPX, and the current rally has started from there. That area is composed of the monthly lower band and the 200 week MA, both in the 2350 area, the 50 month MA at 2330, and rising megaphone support from the 2011 low now in the 2300 area. That is a formidable support area and, if broken, could open a direct move to the double top target area 2120-2200. If it holds that would be the obvious area to end the wave A move down from the high and start the wave B rally. If we see a retest of the lows after this rally ends then that could well be a double bottom setting up for the wave B rally. SPX weekly chart:
(more…)Big Support Breaks
After repeated tests where it held, the thrust down after the Fed hike on Wednesday broke down through the big support level and potential H&S neckline in the 2530-40 SPX area and continued down. Wednesday night I was looking at the next big level on ES 2465-80 area and that too has broken yesterday. I’d be surprised not to see a strong counter-trend rally on SPX soon but it’s getting harder to identify where the next decent support might be.
(more…)Belt and Braces
SPX closed ten handles or so over the 5dma yesterday, so SPX is back on the Three Day Rule. If SPX should close back below the 5dma today or Monday then we should expect a retest of the last low at 2583.23 in the near future. At the moment the 5dma is at 2638 and SPX looks likely to close the day below it.
As it happens that would just confirm the bear flag rising wedge that has already broken down on ES with the same minimum target, so one way or the other that retest looks likely. At that point we could see the second low of a double bottom or continuation down towards the major support area below at 2530-40, the 2018 low and possible H&S neckline at 2532, and the annual pivot at 2538.
First Break Under 2600
I had food poisoning for half of last week so I didn’t manage to get a post out or remind everyone that Stan and I were doing our monthly public Chart Chat on Sunday. If you missed that the recording is posted here.
In the webinar yesterday we were looking at the likely triangle on ES/SPX and what would be likely to happen when that broke down, which it has with the move under 2600 this morning. What generally happens now is an initial break down, then a backtest back into the body of the triangle, likely in progress, and then a thrust down from the triangle, first working target mid to high 2400s though with very significant support at the annual pivot and 2018 low in the 2530-40 area where there is a possible large H&S neckline.
