Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Stocks vs. Commodities: Will Traders Dump All?

By -

Looking back at a longer-term monthly view of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) compared with GOLD (GC) (blue bars) and WTIC Crude Oil (CL) (pink bars), we saw a broad correlation among these regarding rallies and pullbacks…until 2011 when the bounce in GC and CL stalled and, ultimately, sank in mid-2014, especially CL when it plunged to (just below) post-financial crisis levels in January of 2016.

As I write this post at 11:50am ET on Friday, we see that, while the SPX is just below all-time highs, GC faces major resistance at 1350, and CL is swirling around 65.00 (major resistance/support). (more…)

US Government Shutdown Looms on February 9th as World Market “SELL” Signal is Triggered

By -

Another U.S. government shutdown looms this week on February 9th.

Will it…won’t it? That’s the $64,000 question as more volatility is in store for markets.

Given the fact that there are great political divides over a variety of policies, increased volatility in the markets, and, now, the information that’s being revealed that may determine whether or not civil and/or constitutional rights were violated in the months leading up to and after the 2016 presidential election (and any political and/or legal fallout that may occur), will only add to the increased odds of chaos ahead, making future events less predictable. (more…)

FAANGs +5: Two New Risky 3x Leveraged ETNs

By -

On January 23 of this year two new 3x leveraged ETNs were launched, comprised of FBAMZNAAPLNFLXGOOGLBABABIDUNVDATSLA & TWTR, and their descriptions are as follows…

  • FNGU is an exchange traded note that tracks 3x the daily price movements of an index of US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies. The index is highly concentrated and equally weighted.
  • FNGD is an exchange traded note that tracks 3x inverse the daily price movements of an index of high concentrated and equally weighted US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies. The note uses derivatives to achieve its -3 exposure.

They are both highly risky investments and are very thinly traded.

(more…)

S&P 500 Index: Major Support at 2500

By -

Just a quick heads-up to mention that major support for the SPX sits between 2525 and 2485, as shown on the following daily and monthly charts.

There is a convergence of the 200-day moving average with two trendlines at 2525 on the daily chart, and, more importantly, a convergence of two external Fibonacci retracement levels with the +1 standard deviation level of a long-term uptrending regression channel at 2485 on the monthly chart.

If we see a major sell-off in equities, we may see price, ultimately, fall to somewhere around 2500  (a 10% drop from Friday’s close) before it stabilizes. Keep an eye on the FAANGs +5, as I more fully outlined here, as well as the 10YRT, as I described here and here. Further weakness in the FAANGs + 5, together with continued rising rates in the 10YRT, could very well propel such a drop in the SPX to that level, or lower. (more…)