Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Perception, Persuasion, Repetition and Opportunity

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The amount of negative press coverage emanating from Washington in relation to President Trump since his election last November has been relentless and, at times, apoplectic. This is simply my unbiased observation, as I do not condone or condemn any of it.

So far, the equity markets have ignored the rants from the media and political opponents. The SPX is hovering at all-time highs, as shown on the following Monthly chart, and has gained 12.2% since the election, as shown on the percentages-gained graph below of the Major Indices. (more…)

China Bounce or Catastrophic Drop Coming?

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Further to my post of May 7, the following Daily comparison and ratio charts of China’s Shanghai Index (SSEC) and Australia’s Composite Index (AORD) show that SSEC now sits at long-term major support (in both instances), once again, and is vulnerable to further weakness in comparison with AORD.

We’ll see if the Shanghai Index can muster a bounce here and gain any kind of sustainable strength and momentum to support an eventual breakout to higher prices in the Australian Index, or whether a plunge here produces a follow-on drop in AORD.

Failure at current levels could produce a catastrophic and swift drop for China down to the lows produced in 2014. (more…)

Aussie Dollar Hinting at Further Weakness for China & Australia

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For many years, the charts have shown that, as China’s Shanghai Index (SSEC) goes, so goes Australia’s Composite Index (AORD), as shown on the multi-year comparison graph below.

However, a closer look at the following year-to-date comparison graph reveals that SSEC’s attempts to continue to advance fizzled in mid-April and is now flat for the year, while AORD remains a bit more elevated. (more…)

Nasdaq 100 vs. Volatility: Be Wary of a Blow-off Drop

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While the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is busy making new all-time highs, so is the NDX:VXN ratio (VXN is the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index), as shown on the following two Monthly charts.

What is different about these two, is that the NDX:VXN ratio has run up against major resistance (the top of its long-term uptrending channel, while the NDX has a long way to go before it does the same.

With reference to the ratio chart, a drop and hold below the 460 level (127.2% external Fibonacci retracement level) could forecast a drop down to, potentially, major support at 380 (100% Fib retracement level plus bottom of long-term channel) on this chart, or lower.

(more…)