Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Macro & Micro Views of World Markets, Commodities, & Currencies

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I’m showing a comparison, in graph format, of the percentages gained/lost of a variety of world market indices, commodities, currencies, and U.S. ETFs.

The first graph in each category shows the percentages gained/lost from March 2, 2009 to November 13, 2014.

The second graph in each category shows the percentages gained/lost Year-to-Date.

U.S. Major Indices

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Beware of the “Abe” Rhetoric

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As I reported in this recent post on Japan’s Nikkei Futures Index, price has entered “froth” (major resistance) levels seen in the beginnings of the 2007/08 financial crisis. As of tonight (Tuesday), price has held above the “line-in-the-sand” level of 16,666 and is now trading at 17,325, as shown on the Weekly chart of NKD below.

Beware of speculation that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may be “considering dissolving parliament to shore up support,” as reported today in this Bloomberg article. This report may have simply been released to stir up emotions in the market place to lure short-sellers into the mix at these critical levels. (more…)

Small-Caps Lagging for 2014

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The following two Year-to-date Daily charts show how much the Russell 2000 Index is lagging behind the Dow 30, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Indices.

The first chart is a simple comparison which shows the percentage gained for each from the beginning of this year.

Small-Cap stocks have, basically, spent a considerable amount of time in negative territory, while trading sideways from the beginning of this year; meanwhile, Technology stocks have been the favourite, followed by stocks in the SPX and the INDU. (more…)

Oil is on the Brink

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This Weekly chart of WTI Crude Oil Futures says it all.

Oil is sitting just above a major price and Fibonacci Confluence support level of 75.00 (as I write this on Tuesday at 3:45 pm)…a break and hold below 75.00 could see it drop to around its next support level of 64.50.

Furthermore, we may see a bearish Death Cross form soon on this timeframe…should that occur (or even sooner in anticipation of that event), price may briefly pop up to re-test the cross-over level around 96.00 before plunging to, potentially, new depths.

The last time it broke below 75.00 was October of 2008 (during the financial crisis) when it sliced straight through the 200 MA. With volumes increasing over the past few weeks, we could see some fairly volatile price swings enter soon…one to watch. (more…)

SPX…Overvalued or Undervalued?

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A look at a 20-Year Daily chart of the SPX (below) shows that price has popped up to close on Friday just above a major resistance level of 1,975 and has penetrated back inside an uptrending channel from the October 2011 lows. The Momentum indicator has spiked to a new 20-year high.

Failure to hold above 1,975 could see a re-test of 1,900, 1,820 (Fibonacci and price support), or lower.

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