Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Japan’s Nikkei…Into The 2007/08 Froth

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After the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement on October 31st to increase the amount of money they’re pouring into the markets (including U.S. markets), the Nikkei Futures Index soared and ended the week just above major resistance (around 16,666) and is back into the 2007/08 froth, as shown on the Weekly chart of the NKD below.

Failure to hold this level (which is, no doubt, an important psychological level to surpass), could see this index slip back to 15,000, 13,700, or even 12,600 (as I discussed in my post of  October 12th) before they step in and prop it up, once more. Daily volumes may hold the key to direction in this regard…former buying from November of 2013 was thin and resulted in “dead-cat-bounces.”

Gold Update…Santa Rally or Bust?

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I last wrote about gold in my post of October 9th.

Price is slipping back to its critical triple-bottom support level of 1180, as shown on the 5-Year Weekly chart below. I’m watching for a break and hold below that level for a possible re-test of the 1000 level as I mentioned in that post…particularly if the SPX:VIX ratio breaks and holds above the 150.00 level, as I mentioned in my post of October 24th.

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SPX:VIX RATIO — The REAL Test for Bulls

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I last wrote about the SPX:VIX ratio in my post of October 15th.

As shown on the 20-Year Daily ratio chart below, bulls have pushed the price back up to close out this week at major resistance around the 120.00 level. Failure to hold 120.00 could very well see price re-test the 60.00 level, or lower…watch for panic selling of equities should the 60.00 level be breached and held.

The REAL test for sustained market bullishness will be whether price can reclaim and hold the 150.00 level, which was a milestone level this ratio reached before succumbing to pressures of the 2007/08 financial crisis.

What Do the SPX World Indices Forecast?

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The following four 3-Year Daily charts show the relative strength/weakness of the SPX compared with the WORLD Index.

Chart #1 shows a fairly steady climb of the SPX during the past three years. Recent action in October has put in a lower low and broken the uptrend on this daily timeframe. Lower lows have also been made in all three indicators (RSI, MACD & Stochastics)…hinting of further weakness ahead.

CHART #1

Chart #2 shows a more difficult climb of the WORLD Index once it broke above major resistance in January of 2013. This market topped out in July of this year, lost all of its 2014 gains, along with much of its 2013 gains, and hasn’t yet recovered. (more…)

Bulls Will Need to Prove This Bull Market

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As shown on the Daily chart below of the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index (ES), price dropped this week through one support level of Fibonacci confluence and down to the next one before bouncing to finish the week just back above the first confluence level.

Volumes have been exceptionally high since last Friday. Whether the spike in volume on Wednesday’s final drop is capitulation volume remains to be seen.

We’ll need to see price hold above the 1850-1870 level and continue to rally and hold above the 200 MA (pink) around the 1900 near-term resistance level on increasing volumes…otherwise, any further rally may simply be a dead-cat-bounce…particularly since we now have a lower low and the Daily uptrend has been broken.

Failure to hold 1850 may see panic selling enter this market…especially if the SPX:VIX ratio drops below the 60.00 level on increasing downward Momentum, as I mentioned in my post of October 15th.