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You’ve all seen how bonkers the charts are, but this one takes the cake: NVDA’s market cap is nearly 12% of the entire GDP of the United States. Compare that to the king of the Internet bubble disasters, Cisco. This analog has out-analog’d itself.
The boys at Elliott Wave mentioned something about the remarkable (and perhaps nothing more than coincidental) parallels between 2007 and 2024:
This is a great example of how a stock has a personality by way of how it has behaved in the past. Take Costco (COST) as an example. See the nice, neat topping pattern on the leftmost side of the chart? Notice how it didn’t amount to anything? Well, that’s precisely what just happened again. I had puts on it but got out at a small loss Thursday when I realized that this thing is just too robust, as it has plainly demonstrated in the past.
Most analogs offered these days borrow price data from many years, or even decades, ago. I’d like to offer something more recent. I was wondering to myself what the last major dip in the market looked like just before it commenced. I noticed a sizable “stutter” to the market’s ascent in 2021, and I couldn’t help but notice we had exactly the same thing happen in April of this year.
Although the /ES and /NQ have been flipped from green to red all night long, the small caps, my biggest and most aggressive position, have been steadfastly red. As I type this, half an hour before the open, the /RTY is down almost a full percentage point (which qualifies for a “crash” these days).
