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Although the /ES and /NQ have been flipped from green to red all night long, the small caps, my biggest and most aggressive position, have been steadfastly red. As I type this, half an hour before the open, the /RTY is down almost a full percentage point (which qualifies for a “crash” these days).
I’ll come right out and say it: fortunes are going to be made when Nvidia enters its bear market. Of course, people have believed that for a long while, and all that time, fortunes have indeed been made – – but by bulls, not bears, the latter of whom have funded the ceaselessly growing riches of those long NVDA.
It will end, though, as all things do, and I’d like to offer up an analog in this regard. We all know that, for years now, Nvidia has done nothing but make lifetime highs every day, drawing in more and more people.
I put together an analog for Tesla (TSLA, if you honestly have to ask) which I think you might like. The stock is worth about one-third its peak value. I’ve tinted the chunks of the analog for the past several years. We’re in the “grey zone” right now, and the real question is how much of its past behavior will be repeated, which had pounded the stock down to nearly $100 in late 2022.
Preface to all nine parts: today is Eclipse Day, so I am giving myself an exceptionally rare day off. I have no idea if I'll see anything, because there's so much cloud cover. In spite of that, I had devoted the entire day to this quest, so I'm setting up some posts in advance so my dear readers do not get bored. Once this all blows over, I'll be sure to tell you about whatever adventures I had during my Texas journey.
I used to be a huge fan of analogs. So much so that I dedicated an entire section of SocialTrade to them. There are at least two huge problems with analogs, however:
