Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

WAGnostic Update

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So I took a look at Tim’s 1937 WAG corollary in my DIY
charting program (i.e. Excel).  Peak-to-peak,
mapping every active trading day 1:1, the two datasets are 86.4% correlated
through yesterday:

 
WAG_1
So while correlated is nice, it’s not like people are using
this to predict future behavior or anything. 
However, even an untrained eye can see some amount of “shadowing,” where
the patterns appear very similar- but on different time scales.

So I started playing with the time scales and came across
two WAG scenarios:

1)     
Peak-valley mapping on both: Puts us on the RS and
about to downhill the K-12 like Lane Meyer. 
Today certainly appears to be supporting this run (at least while I was
writing this… the PPT Bat-Phone might not have been called yet).

 
WAG_2
2)     
Peak2-to-peak2 mapped: is interesting in that we’re
not yet to the H&S neckline (more like “on” the neck with a shoulder to go)

 
WAG_3
If anyone can think of a more scientific approach to
evaluating this time-compression hypothesis, I’d be interested to hear it.

Parallelograms

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It might just be my imagination, but it appears we have somewhat
of a pattern in the NYSE.  The price data
(I only charted Jan-07 to the present) seems to kiss the blue downtrend line
just after the “apex” of a parallelogram – then drops to the red support line
below.  After that is anyone’s guess;
there are examples of both breaks to new lower parallelograms as well as
rebounds to new highs.

Should this pattern hold true, it would appear we are headed
to the 6600 range by about mid September.

 
NYSE080110_para2
 

Ichimoku Cloud Update:

Recent price action has put us back in the cloud (see
previous post),
and that’s where we’re sitting:

 
NYSE080110_ichimoku
 

Given these two charts together, I had entered some intermediate-term
short positions Thursday and Friday with relatively-tight stops above the upper
cloud. Although I have individual cloud charts for every position, the following is the NYSE stop data for the next few weeks (as of today):

Stops

2010’s One Meaningful Drop

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OK, blogger's guilt strikes again. I want to get this off my plate.

I've re-examined all my Big Picture posts, and I actually haven't changed my mind one bit – – for months I've had an eye toward 925, and 925 is still where my target is at. I had drifted into "875" for some reason, but that's too low.

The 1937-1942 analog calls for a drop within the next couple of months somewhere between the two highlighted cyan areas (ranging from about 875 to 1010). Based on a number of measurements I've done, around 925 to 930 makes the most sense. I've tinted the general target zone.

0723-spxprediction

As proof this is not just Wishful Bearish Thinking, my view is that this will be pretty much all the fun the bears can count on for many months to come. Indeed, if we were to enjoy such a drop, I'd pretty much go to almost-all-longs mode for a while (wouldn't that be something?)

Anyway, Friday should be interesting. Last Friday certainly was. Good luck to us all.

The Analog Update

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I revisited my 1937-1942 analog this afternoon. I've hand-marked up the charts, but I didn't feel like scanning them in, because the last 30 minutes of the day's trading left me ticked-off and, thanks to our dear friends as GS, disillusioned just like I was prior to mid-April.

So instead of sharing every little wiggle with you, I'll simply point out approximately where we are in the analog; here is the 1937-1939 chunk, with our "target" circled:

0715-30s

We could still climb higher from here; anywhere in that cyan-tinted area would be acceptable. If and when we do flip down, assuming the analog holds (as it has for nearly two years now), we'll fall to somewhere in that magenta range. The range is huge, I realize, but my guess is 9000 on the Dow, plus or minus a hundred points or so.

0715-present
 

I'm really bummed that a 20-point slaughter of GOOG isn't doing a thing for the equity bear after hours. It'll be good to get yet another OPEX out of the way. Good night.