This is my trigger to add to my hard asset positions, I have set a series of buy stops.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Upside Risks (by Springheel Jack)
I saw an alarming rising channel on EURUSD last night, and I'm watching that very carefully this morning. An IHS of surpassing ugliness may be forming within it:
Equities have been trading sideways to up for the last few days, while EURUSD has been moving down. If EURUSD reverses decisively and rises 400 odd pips from here to the top of the channel then we might well see that end, and equities move up quite a bit. One to watch and I am reminded looking at it that my ES daily rising wedge upper trendline was never hit. That would be in the 1270 area now.
On ES itself I'm seeing a gentle rising channel with support at 1241 and resistance at 1249 at the time of writing. That looks fairly solid and may well define the trading range today:
IWM broke the previous high with confidence yesterday and my upside target trendline for IWM now looks likely to be hit. That target is in the 79.5 area today:
I've been having a look at copper this morning, and have a couple of observations to make. On the 60min chart there is a strong trendline running through the rise from 360, and if that is hit again then the upside target would be in the 430 area. I've drawn two trendlines below to show immediate and slightly longer term support:
On the weekly chart there is an obvious target for copper in the 440 area and that is pretty much the final major resistance trendline on the copper chart. if that is broken then the upside looks wide open, though I have drawn in a green trendline that would then be the trendline to watch.
I'm still very doubtful about seeing much downside on equities this week.
Shorts Update (by BKudla)
On my blog and here, I posted on a number of short positions I have taken, with ERX this morning being my latest. They are moving as expected, and wanted to reiterate that this move is just beginning, IMO. I commented in the charts below. I am also short SPY PKX, PTR, and MCP (not pictured in this post).
As a caution, I am always moving stops to reduce my risks in case I am wrong. I am only painting the idealized view.
A Bit More Upside, I Think (by Springheel Jack)
SPX has been trickling up on a daily closes basis the last few days, and there's still a bit more upside to come I think. For the conclusion of this wave up I'm still looking at the rising wedge from the summer lows, and that would put the target this week in the 1257 – 60 SPX area, so the 1252 – 1255 ES (March) area:
I have some doubts that target will be made though, and the shorter term charts aren't particularly encouraging in that respect. Looking at the 15min chart on ES (March) I'm seeing resistance in the 1242 – 44 area today if ES can make it off the support trendline. A break with confidence down from 1229 ES would most likely be followed by a significant further push down:
EURUSD is still making lower highs and lows but has been spending too long consolidating here. A more serious push up or down looks likely to start soon and I'm favoring a push down. That would most likely carry equities down with it to some degree:
Oil is also stalled with the obvious next move seeming to be upward towards strong resistance just under $92. A break below $88.25 would suggest that oil won't make that target:
I'll leave you today with one of my favorite long term charts, which is the ten year weekly sugar chart. Sugar is looking toppy to me here, but the reason I like this chart so much is that it is a great example of some of the very strange short term moves one sometimes sees on futures charts. If you have a close look you'll see that there was apparently an opportunity to buy sugar at or very near zero near the end of 2003. Not something you see very often:
POT, Up in Smoke? (by BKudla)
The Ag Chems, in my opinion are looking tired, and any additional dollar strength will push them lower. I intend to place a debit calendar put spread on POT, and add to or release my hedged leg upon a break of the black line drawn on my chart. AGU looks similarly patterned.
