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It looks like another day of record highs across the board for equities. I’ve become inured to it by now. I’m particularly focused on what oil is doing, since apparently the OPEC production cuts are enjoying nearly full compliance, which is compelling oil to make yet another trust at the top of its range. It simply cannot seem to escape this very tight range, and OPEC has at a minimum done a great job creating a rock-solid floor for oil.
Yesterday was clearly a good day to introduce my new Jack in the Box continuation/flag pattern. The double bottom broke down slightly and has then reversed back into a full test of 2299.40. The full ATH retest at 2300.99 is VERY close and should be tested today if we are going to see that full retest. SPX 60min chart:
It seems that I don’t post very much on oil (or Natural Gas, for that matter). These are covered each weekend in NFTRH; but yes it’s true, I give oil and energy short shrift in public posting. Probably because I have other higher priority interests right now.
But a subscriber asked about shorting oil in light of the fading efficacy of the OPEC deal, Elliott Wave’s (I assume he means EWI) apparent target of $56 with a crash due thereafter, and Sentimentrader’s high risk sentiment reading. So let’s look into it.
WTI Crude Oil is bullish above key support by daily chart.
There’s not a lot going on this morning, but oil is kind of interesting, down nearly 2.5% as I’m typing this due to concerns that the U.S. producers will be ramping up their output due to stronger prices. For weeks now, oil has been in a very tight range of only about $2. The key, though, is the lower end of that range – about $52 – because, if broken, we could finally see the uptrend snapped and move back into the upper 40s, dragging energy stocks down with it.
