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I’ll start by saying my covering of AMD couldn’t have gone much worse. I had a short position, and in spite of AMD being quite a large company, its pre-market market prices were up about 36% (AKA not a good morning to be short). I am very disciplined in my trading, and my stop-loss orders are always in place. On extremely rare occasions I’ll temporarily remove such orders, but this time I kept it in place and basically got out at the worst possible price.
If there’s been one consistent winning sector this year, it’s precious metals. All the ratio charts and long-term projections have pointed to that, and, importantly, the Big Round Number of $4,000 on gold seems almost inevitable at this point. Gold has exhibited one of the cleanest symmetric triangle breakouts I’ve ever seen. Crossing $4k will generate a lot of press and excitement, although I suspect, short-term, it would soon be followed by a “Sell the News” kind of weakness.
Until yesterday, my one and only aggressive position — that is, my only options position at all – – was DIA October puts. I was getting increasingly nervous about the massive, inverted head & shoulders pattern on the Dow, so during yesterday’s all-too-brief triple-digit tumble on the Dow, I decided to give my heart a break and sold off the entire position (red oval on the left of the chart below).
Thank God, too. As you can see, this morning the /YM has been a bottle rocket, and the neckline for the aforementioned bullish pattern was cracked (arrow).
After things heated up following Powell’s dovish capitulation to Trump, I took my DIA puts behind the barn and shot ’em dead. It’s a shame, but the risk of an inverted head & shoulders continuation pattern just too great. Of course, if today is a top and the Dow Industrials reverse hard from here, please take ME behind the barn and put me to the same fate!
This pair of candid shots were taken last night. I don’t think anything sums up the past month better. Ask me what happened in a few years.
