I truly enjoy writing (said the man unnecessarily who started getting published at age 15 and has written twenty-five books, including a 568-page novel, a full-length screenplay, and 50,000 blog posts). But I gotta tell ya, it’s getting increasingly difficult to write about this so-called “market”. There are only so many things a person can say about lifetime highs. “Wow. Goodness. Gosh, it’s even MORE over-valued! How about that?” It gets old.
In that vein, every single index chart looks identical: that is to say (i) a long ascending trendline anchored to April 7th; (ii) a failure; (iii) nearly daily higher closes, typically representing new lifetime highs; (iv) all the while getting closer and closer to the underside of the broken trendline, which now represents resistance.
One unusual exception is the semiconductor index which, thanks to endless AI mania, has never dared to even fracture its own ascending trendline.
One other interesting odd man out is the gold sector. If this can ease back down to its own upper trendline (the top of the broken channel), it would represent, I think, a fantastic buying opportunity.
And, of course, volatility continues to get curb-stomped into unconsciousness. The VIX has plunged from 30 to Jeffrey Epstein levels. It’s just sad.
This week is fraught with risk (and, thus, opportunity). I came into the day super light, but I bumped up my exposure from 13 positions to 16 and did some stop-loss-tightening along the way. Peak pandemonium should be from Wednesday’s FOMC announcement up through Friday morning’s opening bell, because the earnings reports from some of the biggest companies on the planet are going to tumble out all at once, to say nothing of interest rate cuts and Asian news.
We’d all better hold on to our hats.
