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For the third time in a row, the CPI report has given the bulls a massive gift. As I’m typing this, minutes before the opening bell, the ES is up 125, the NQ is up almost 500, and it’s a total frenzy. Briefly, the /ES even pushed above its descending trendline.
Apparently the entire fate of all humanity rests on one government-generated number that rolls out Tuesday morning, which is the Consumer Price Index. Here’s the history of it in recent years. Try to spot a trend, if you can.
If you have tuned out inflationist gold bugs since mid-2020 you are now in position to capitalize, unlike scores of inflation bugs who’d already bought (and likely sold into tax loss season, 2022).
Readers of nftrh.com have seen this space write many times how gold is not about inflation. At least not primarily. That compounds with the gold miners, which leverage gold’s standing within the inflated (and periodically deflated) macro. The gold mining sector is not about inflation. As in 2003-2008 the gold miners can rise during an inflationary phase, but as in Q4, 2008 they would then be summarily executed due to poor accumulated fundamentals.
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The risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this article and I’ve parroted them in several blog posts at nftrh.com. But suffice it to say, the gold stock sector did the work it was supposed to do since August, 2020.
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