Promises made. Promises kept.

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Promises made. Promises kept.

I’ve been mulling over how to do this post for a while because I don’t want to offend readers who might be very sensitive to any criticism, direct or implied, of the Trump administration, and I tend to stay away from any political discussions. However, any objective review of the likely effect of some of that administration’s policies requires an honest discussion of those policies and their likely impact.
Given that I now believe that the odds of seeing a serious bear market this year are high and that a full market crash is increasingly on the cards. I need to do that objective review, and my apologies if anyone is offended. I am just describing the geopolitical and economic realities here as I see them and am not planning to make political commentary a regular feature in my analysis going forward.
(more…)I’m amazed this week is almost over. It’s been quite an intense week, particularly psychologically, as I stood alone as the last bear in the solar system as of Tuesday, in spite of plenty of doubters and dissenters hither and thither.
Just the past couple of days have been exceptionally positive for my portfolio, but the real potential is Friday, which could be either glorious or dreadful. The magic moment happened on Wednesday, and, God willing, that will mark the end of Wave Two so we start to have some real fun.

Well, the presumed big event of this week is coming up in the morning, before the opening bell: the PCE report, which is basically real inflation divided by, I dunno, three or four. As you can see, this concocted, totally fake inflation data doesn’t budge very much from month to month, but for some reason all life on Earth depends on what this data point turns out to be tomorrow.

