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It is amazing how compressed the cycles are in the markets these days. But maybe it’s not so surprising when you consider the constant involvement of meddling, manipulating central banks and even governments. Add a dash of hysterical media and the human instinct for knee-jerk herding and voila, there you have it; sentiment in commodities (and the inflation trades in general) going from absolutely rock solid (over) bullish to bleak in the span of a month.
All of this in the wake of an entity that held out dovish as long as it could before being directed by the market to put on its hawk costume and go steroidal in its inflation fighting stance. Seriously, market participants are taking their cues from a monetary authority that itself is taking cues from the bond market’s signaling (tardy though they were on the uptake). The link above shows the 3 month T-bill yield’s directive that the Fed aggressively raise rates back back in February. There were other signals as well demanding the same.
(more…)Well, it’s been a great morning so far. I had a really sad “one that got away” however – – the Dow Utilities fund, symbol XLU. It look absolutely juicy for a massive put position. The bid/ask was 4.45 by 5.00, and I figured I could get in at, let’s say, 4.60 or so. Nope. The market moved quickly, and the whole thing got away from me. Oh, well.

Interesting day so far, eh, folks? Looks like we bottomed about half an hour into the day, and the bulls have been gobbling up stocks ever since. That’s A-OK! I want a grind-it-out decline, not a crash. I think July is going to be fantastic for the bears, and for all the bulls buying up stocks at these prices – – thanks!
Energy is a favorite sector of mine, and I am fully loaded up there. The war has been the driver, largely, but we keep getting one false breakout after another. I agree with the notion that we’re back in the summer of 2008 again. In other words, oil is the last man standing, and as it falls, all assets are going to come along for the ride.
