Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

US Stock Market, Profits and Policy

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Excerpted from the October 6 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 259:

US stocks generally remain on bullish trends in all time frames. Further, the Debt Ceiling (and Government shutdown) theater seems to be playing out in the usual way that these events play out; the stock market has been correcting in an orderly way and seems to be waiting for an inevitable compromise between the White House and Republican leaders. This of course would spur a next leg up if the usual script plays out. That is how it looks, with a traditional bull catalyst (heavy media rotation of an Armageddon-like political event) in play. (more…)

Outer Limits of Monetary Policy

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The ISM has once again expanded. Policy is working, so please Dear Mr. Bernanke, begin to withdraw not only a token amount of Treasury bond asset buying in October; make a real statement for the ‘organic’ economy. Pull all T bond purchases and stop buying some MBS to boot. You’ll not only help the Fed’s balance sheet by doing so, you’ll also send a clear message to the people that you have confidence in the natural economy to build on its momentum. (more…)

Send in the Clowns

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Last week the Fed treated us to a whipsaw as market perceptions apparently were not in line with the FOMC policy statement, which was basically a punt. Then the very next day the Fed’s James Bullard jawboned the media about a possible October Federal Reserve tapering. Hence, a letter writer was left with images of a 3 ring circus heading into the weekend. From the opening segment of the September 22 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole: (more…)

FOMC Taper News Day

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Today is likely to be dominated by the FOMC Announcement at 2 PM. That announcement seems likely to contain details of when tapering will start, the scale and structure of any taper, and possibly a draft timescale for the tapering to zero of QE3 over the next year or two. This is significant market moving news so many traders will be avoiding carrying any exposure into the announcement. (more…)